Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Exxxxxcellent

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I am absolutely THRILLED about how today went. Let me recount my day for you, to set the stage:

  • As you know, a few days ago, I slipped off my well-worn bear suit and went bullish;
  • Therefore, I had gone long GUSH (triple-bullish on energy companies), FAS (triple-bullish on financials) and very, very short on bonds (by way of a TLT short and long TLT puts).
  • Today’s opening absolutely sucked for me. My short bond position created a 0.5% loss in my overall portfolio. I dumped it at a loss.
  • I vacillated quite a lot about shorting today. I covered my 4 shorts. Then I entered a few more. Then I finally just threw my hands up and covered everything and re-shorted a huge TLT position.
  • I also did some day trading in SPY (profitably).
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Two Sensational Successes

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We’ve all heard about “the one that got away”; well here are two. I used to talk about these two ideas so frequently that I got embarrassed about it. The rationale for both was the same: an analog. My view was that each of these stocks would ape their behavior between 2006 and 2009. In both cases, this has come sensationally true, and even I am amazed. I confess I didn’t actually partake in these beauties, but I hope a few of you did.

slopechart PIR
Pier One
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Credo

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The world has been rewarding cynics like myself lately.

I thought the North Korean peace deal that everyone was hailing – – and suggesting Trump be given the Nobel Peace Prize – – would amount to nothing. We’re well on our way there. It’s a complete zero.

I believed the fakery of the past nine years would end in tears and catastrophe. We are on page 7 of a 500 page novel of that catastrophe. This is just the beginning.

And, much shorter term, I offered up the following prediction at the beginning of this month in this post.

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