Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Frightful Possibilities

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A Santa Claus rally. A trade deal between China and the U.S. A straight shot to 3,200 on the S&P 500. The bullish stories are flooding the airwaves. After all, the vast majority of “traders” and “investors” have never experienced a bear market before. Equities dipped a little in October, and people don’t like it. So they’re trying to wish it away.

Maybe they will. Maybe the won’t. We remain at a crucial juncture. Last week was largely a waste of time. We did get a nice selloff on Monday, but after that, it was a circle jerk, with desperate rumors from D.C. about a trade deal attempting to prop things up.

On the ES, the two tinted areas are all I care about right now. If, God forbid, we cross above the yellow tint at about 2757, the bulls are going to grab the baton. It wouldn’t take much in the way of news to make it happen. Another plausible rumor about China would do the trick, although the way Pence is handling it, maybe I shouldn’t worry so much. A failure of the green line at 2711 would shove a silver stake through the pattern’s heart. (more…)

After the Fall

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There’s something I’ve noticed on Slope that I find perplexing, a little troubling, and ever-so-slightly amusing. Whenever I write anything that seems to be a prediction, some people get their feathers quite ruffled. Indeed, it seems to kind of piss them off, and they pound their virtual fists on the virtual table and declare that no one can predict anything, and that it’s an arrogant waste of time to even attempt it.

I’m in the business of prediction. Principally, I use historical price charts to try my best to suggest what the future holds. That sort of thing doesn’t seem to bother folks. On the contrary, it’s kept Slope popular, to varying degrees, for nearly fourteen years.

However, when I make, shall we say, textual predictions, some people object. I guess all I can say to that group is………you might as well stop reading the post now, because I wanted to offer up a few speculations about what’s ahead. I am by no means a futurist or an expert in societal trends. By far my biggest “this is what’s coming” success was the 1983 book I wrote, which I’ve mentioned here before, called The World Connection, which predicted our online world with Nostradamus-like accuracy. (more…)

What a Ride……….

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Well, THAT was something, wasn’t it?

I’d like to recount the past 24 hours for me. Just a way for me to share some thoughts, for whatever they may be worth. Perhaps there are some insights buried in these words for others so that it’s not just a self-absorbed narrative.

As regular readers know, I had taken on the decidedly un-Tim-like stance of turning bullish. To be precise, last week I reduced my short positions from 90 to 30, increased my long positions from 0 to 4, and had reduced my overall exposure from 300%+ to 135%. In short, I was ending the week with much lower risk, much lower opportunity, and an eye toward a bounce.

I was eagerly awaiting the open on Sunday. I kept scanning the news, and there was nothing particularly market-moving going on, with the exception of the radical-right nut job winning the Brazilian Presidency, which was actually kind of bullish. Even ZH couldn’t seem to find anything really big to worry about. (more…)

So Why Cover Now?

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First off, I urge you – -nay, insist! – – to check out the incredibly sexy and fantastic Quarterly Reports page. Oh, my God, it’s beautiful!

Second, I wanted to tell you that I’ve covered a ton of positions. And by “ton” I mean I’ve gone from 300% margined to only about 95%, and from 90 positions to 35. For someone like me, this is almost like “nothing but cash”. Now let me be clear, I hate taking profits. Just hate it. Here’s why:

  • The opportunity is gone. Well, mostly. I still have some shorts. But if we crash, I’ll feel like stupid.
  • The thrill is gone! It’s FUN to see profits explode when the market is falling.
  • The entry prices were DYNAMITE. I’ll never get prices that good again!

However……… (more…)

A Strange Problem to Have

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We are only 18 trading days into the final quarter of the year, and part of me wants to close out everything, chalk up a profitable year, and be done with it. I honestly don’t think I’ve had such a powerful run in such a short span of time since, well, a decade ago. Going entirely into cash right now would take risk to zero and allow me to lock in all these fabulous profits.

Just look at how quickly things have become undone. That sliver of time on the right utterly unwound the long slog of gains shown in green. Sell-offs are swift and severe, aren’t they?

short (more…)