Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Possibly Bullish Path for Financials

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I must say, many of the individual financial issues (GS, BAC, JPM, etc.) look so horribly sold-off that it seems not out of the question that a powerful rally could ensue. Below is the ETF for financial stocks. If it gets its footing, it could be in for a nearly 20% push higher from current levels.

0914-XLF

Of course, the market has so many cross-currents right now, the above could just as easily break support at 12 and plunge to God-knows-where.

For myself, I am so disgusted and jerked-around by the Euro obsession and the looming Fed news next week that I have trimmed back my portfolio risk to a bare minimum. This environment is simply too schitzo for me to feel comfortable with any meaningful amount of risk.

Removing Human Emotion (by Consistently Incredulous)

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This past Labor Day weekend, I had an extra day off with some good drinks, an OpusX and some brats from the grill (and if you don’t know to pre-boil in onions and Lienes– shame on you).  If my mother-in-law hadn’t come to town – life would have been good.  But she did, and as always- she never leaves.  Maybe not “never,” but two weeks of pain & anguish is a damn long time.  So while my wife takes the self-inflicted hit (as well she should… I didn’t invite the harpy), the kids I have time to hide behind monitors… and I can author a post. 

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The Three Important Aspects to Shorting (by Ryan Mallory)

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This will come across as rather an over-simplistic post, but it is of great benefit to traders who are considering shorting this market now or in the future, or to those who are apprehensive at the notion of such an idea. What I want to do is break it down in its most simplistic form, and give you the three elements that I abide by and always keep fresh in my mind.

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Hedging Update (by Dave Pinsen)

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A month of closes over 30 for the VIX

The VIX rose 2.82% on Thursday, closing at 34.32. Since the market meltdown of August 5th, it hasn't closed below 30 on any day. Something I've mentioned in previous posts, when the VIX was below 20 (e.g., this one) is that long investors ought to consider hedging when volatility is low, and hedging costs are relatively low as well. Since August 5th, that hasn't been the case.

Hedging Update

The table below shows the costs, as of Thursday's close, of hedging a basket of stocks and ETFs against greater-than-20% declines over the next several months, using optimal puts (if there are any optional stocks or ETFs you'd like to see added for future updates, feel free to mention them). First, a reminder about what optimal puts mean in this context, and a step by step example of finding optimal puts for one of the ETFs listed below (GLD). 

 

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How Tim Saved the Day

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I'd like to tell you about my trading day. It was a profitable day – – not wildly so, but profitable nonetheless – – but I think I learned at least one good lesson today that is worth sharing.

As a preface to this little tale, I'd like to provide a few quick reminders:

1. I greatly prefer the short side of the market. This is a curse and a tragedy, but it's how I tick. For whatever reason, I am put together in such a way that I'd rather be short a given security than long. I think I'm old enough to recognize that this is just who I am, and thus, Slope tends to have a very bearish bias.

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