Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Market Stressors In Your Trading Strategy (by Ryan Mallory)

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NOTE: I'm planning on doing a market video tonight. It should be up at about 6:30 PST or so. – Tim

I want to continue on the article I published last week on Eliminating "Hope" from your trading. One way to do that is by identifying the key market stressors in your trading style and how they affect you personally in how you approach the market. Because Hope, as great and wonderful that word sounds, is detrimental to your trading, because Hope has a personality complex with Frustration. When Hope meets reality, you end up with a Dr.Jekyll and Mr. Hyde scenario, and for trading such a mindset leads to destruction of your capital. 

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Find Hope and Eliminate It (By Ryan Mallory)

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One thing I have come to recognize is how much inherant "HOPE" is baked into our theories surrounding trading, even those of us who think we're the most disciplined of traders.

An old saying is that there's "No such thing as an athiest in a foxhole", and the same goes for trading, when we are really down on our luck, when we are threatened with some major losses, we tend to "hope" for a favorable outcome so that we don't have to take the loss. 

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Why I Shorted Where I Shorted

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First off, there are already Halloween decorations and pumpkins going on in my neighborhood. Sheesh!

Anyway, just a quick post to wrap the day up……I had a bunch of new items I wanted to short, but I wanted to wait for a decent price. As the market strengthened (briefly!) rather late in the session, I noticed it was approaching the underside of a broken line. This line wasn't quite horizontal, but it was close, and I literally had my finger hovering over the "Execute" button that would unleash about 20 Sell Short orders. Once the price kissed the underside of the line (circled here in green), I clicked it.

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On a different screen at the same time was the IWM, which had a somewhat similar line. This only affirmed my belief that this was a meaningful price level. 

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Of course, nowhere in nature's law is it written that the price couldn't have cut through both lines and exploded higher, but this is a matter of balancing risk with reward. The risk was lower if I could hold out for the retracement to that line, and being a not terribly patient person, this wasn't easy for me. But, in the end, I'm glad I waited, because better entry prices have two wonderful benefits: (a) better profits; (b) lower potential losses!

With just thirteen hours left in this quarter, I am on the edge of my seat with nervousness, I confess. I'll be glad to open up the bar on Friday. It won't be a moment too soon.

Good night.

Perfectly Split

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I think at this point one of two things will happen next:

(a) we will crash based on some major event, swiftly taking us to 1050 (which, ironically, will really irk me, since I won't be in a position to take advantage); or

(b) we will get a lift up to somewhere around 1170 or 1175 on the ES, and then continue an orderly plunge from there.

I am positioned the best for situation (b). I have a precise 50/50 split in my portfolio – a 38% commitment (62% cash) with exactly 25 long and 25 short positions.

If (a) happens, well, I'll lose on all my longs and will basically make nothing with the exception of any excess drops on my shorts. So it'll be a wash (and a disappointing one!), little better than being wholly flat.

If (b) happens, I'll sell my longs at a nice profit once we finish the push higher, then I'll augment my existing shorts with new positions and go 100% bearish again. And you won't see anything about a 38% commitment, either.

So at this point, I'm market-neutral, although I'm banking on a rise first and then a drop later in the week.

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