Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Eighteen Hundred Points

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Well, the Dow has rallied about 1800 points in the past couple of months, since the October 4th low. Nothing's really changed since then – – the U.S. is still, by any realistic measure, bankrupt, and the systemic issues of the Euro crisis are probably worse than ever.The "super-committee" to address U.S. debt did a joke of a job, even to a cynic like me, since they gave up pretty much instantly. Sentiment, however, has changed mightily, and we have another big rally on our hands today.

I still focus on cash as my only acceptable "long" position, in spite of potential opportunity costs. My disposition remains to move my short-position-percentage up or down, depending on the circumstances. I remain in "risk off" mode, at about 30% short, 70% cash.

One item I've pointed out, tongue-in-cheek, as an interesting reversal indicator is ERY, but today puts a bullet through that fellow's forehead. It was cute while it lasted, but this – like DUG – is getting trampled to lifetime lows.

1205-ery

Hedging Two Banks Heavily Exposed To Europe

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"Days to save the Eurozone", then the big rally

Hey fellow Slopers,

A couple of days before Wednesday's coordinated central bank action goosed global markets, Wolfgang Münchau wrote in his FT column ("The Eurozone has only days to avoid collapse") that if the European summit on December 9th didn't lead to an ambitious three part plan to save the Euro (an ECB backstop + a timetable for a Eurobond + plus an agreement on a fiscal union) the Eurozone risked collapse:

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Be Reasonable

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I feel compelled to write something for a number of reasons:

+ You are, like it or not, my therapy;

+ My brain has been in trade-psycho-overdrive for the past 30 hours;

+ It is only proper that I disclose any "big feelings" I am having with the group

Of the many complimentary emails I've received over the years with respect to this blog, by far the most common reason people cite for their love of Slope is my honesty. I freely admit screw-ups, fears, concerns, problems, and any other bad or embarassing stuff that 99% of other blogs would hide or outright lie about. Some clowns take advantage of this openness by hatefully mocking me, but Karma has a way of catching up with such souls. It always has. I'm not going to let emotionally-unstable sociopaths keep me from being open and honest.

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Hedging Update — New Tech Stocks (by Dave Pinsen)

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Hey fellow Slopers,

Below is a quick look at the current hedging costs for a few tech companies that went public this year. Before that, though, a quick note about a non-public company Tim blogged about Tuesday, Color ("Update on Color Silliness"). Checking AppShopper's top 200 grossing list for social networking apps, still no Color as of Tuesday night. On to the hedging costs of recent tech IPOs.

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Here’s the Tough Part

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My pointing out of the diamond pattern on the NQ (even while it was in formation) and the price collapse that followed was spot-on. Well, that's all lovely, but here's the bummer part: we are nearing the price target.

That bums me out. Watching prices collapse is a total kick, and it always stinks to see it draw near an end. I have started covering some positions for nice profits, but I must confess a certain amount of chagrin at the entire affair. I'd prefer markets go to $0, but sadly, they always find support.

I even went long a big SPY position a little earlier today when it looked like a bit of a base was forming, but I got out at a tiny ($1,000) loss before any real damage was done. 

I am keeping one thing in mind, though: oftentimes the lion's share of price change happens just before the reversal, so even if you capture 95% of the move on a time-basis, you can miss 30% of the price move in that final little scream. So I'm holding off on completely covering until the target is utterly achieved.

1123-nq