Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Manage Your Risk or It Will Manage You

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Arguably, the most important part of a successful trading plan is sound risk management.  I've recently had to take another look at this as I am only human and fell back into some bad habits.  After a fantastic 2nd quarter and some decent gains, I feel I may have become overconfident and adjusted my position sizing too high. 

I pretty much broke even over the summer, but then took some large hits over Sept/Oct.  I have to admit, my rules for sizing in different market conditions were not very clear even to me and needed more definition.  Because of their loosely defined status, I had trouble really trusting my system and didn't have a plan for what to do when I had conflicting signals and which ones to prioritize.  This was a major mistake.  Thankfully, I know at this point to cut losers even when it hurts and overall I'm not really damaged just a bit disappointed.  There's no room for impatience in trading.

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You Know You Shouldn’t Be Trading When… (by Ryan Mallory)

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Dont-trade-1As a follow-up post to the one I did last week on How Big Should I Trade, I want to focus on "When I Should Not Be Trading". This is a little bit more straight forward that will focus on the more subtle traits for when you know you should just 'hang it up."

First and foremost, across the board – the main characteristic involved in every case a person shouldn't be trading is when it is done out of desperation. 

What does this desperation look like?

Desperation is what lures so many people into the stock market – much like the flashing lights of Vegas that offers the promise of a better life as well. In both cases it just leaves people further in despair and a lighter pocket too. 

Often times the position sizes that we choose to trade is often a direct result of what we'd like to  make from the market on a regular basis. Some people won't trade $1,000 or $2,000 in a single trade because they just don't feel like it offers enough in returns. 

Some folks will trade larger sizes because they figure that if they can make $X.XX doing so, that will enable them to quit their day-job. 

And then of course, there's the person that 'desperately wants to be a millionaire' and as a result creates a nifty spread sheet that calculates "If I trade "X" dollars and make "Y" return, over the course of "Z" years, I will be able to retire. 

But let me be frank – Trading is about developing a craft, a skill set, a TRADE that will allow you to consistently extract income out of the market outside of all external forces, opinions, people, and influences. Trading is not about making money and winning. That is the result of developing your skill set. 

You create the skill set and the ability to trade with discipline and accuracy, then winning will be an afterthought. 

But by trading out of desperation, it causes you to take short-cuts and circumvent the path to developing a long-term career in trading. It will cause you to trade larger than you should, more frequently than you should, and more often with out any reason for doing so. 

So learn to trade smaller dollars, amounts that you can withstand to lose. Amounts that if the trade goes horribly wrong, you won't be dreading telling your spouse about what happened. 


Dont-trade-2Learn to trade small!

That also means avoiding the all-too-alluring Proprietary Trading Firms – better known as "Prop Firms" – if you take this route, I can assure you that you will not blossom into the trader you are capable of becoming.

Why?

Because it is just another short-cut – and there are no short-cuts to trading successfully – the only thing that a prop firm makes you believe you can do is earn a greater amount of money by trading in bigger sums of cash that doesn't even belong to you, the likes of which you would never trade, simply because you wouldn't be joining the prop firm in the first place if you had that kind of cash. 

If you want to be a trader and be good at it. Don't take the short-cuts. Every other profession penalizes people for trying to take the short cut to success and if you do what I'm telling you not to do… well, then you are writing your own trading obituary as a result.

Learning to become a successful trader with large positions, requires that first prove yourself successful with the smaller positions.  

Be sure to check out Ryan's Blog at SharePlanner.com

How Big Should I Make My Trades (by Ryan Mallory)

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Let's be frank – the bigger the better when it comes to trading stocks:
How-big-should-i-trade 

Big Returns = Big Money

Big Portfolio = Big Positions

Big Positions = Big Profits

Bigger Positions = Bigger Cash Returns on Small % Gains = Less need for significant winning trades

So Why don't we all just trade as big as we can? 

Because the exact opposite is true when you lose and the true reality of the above statements really becomes:

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Trading In The Matrix (by Market Sniper)

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Most are familiar with the movie series The Matrix in which reality was totally divorced from perception. I believe we are faced with the same situation when we, as traders, engage the markets now.

Formerly  relatively free markets have been replaced by The Matrix. Markets that, over a long period of time, reacted to fundamentals and over shorter periods of time reacted to supply and demand factors no longer exist. All of that has been replaced by The Matrix leading some to even question the validity of technical analysis.

Does it not seem that what used to work fairly well no longer does? Or works so sporadically as to call the usefulness of what we used to do into question? Does volume matter with the advent of dark pool trading and high frequency trading  (HFT) machines? Does it seem that things no longer trend well at all? When you do identify a trend, it tends to end abruptly? Seeing a lot of chart patterns that used to work well fail more consistently than leading to the next technical  expectation as to direction?

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