Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Homebuilders ETF (XHB)…Volatility Building

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I'll be watching these two charts (Monthly and Daily) on XHB in relation to New Home Sales data to be released on Tuesday (sales are still near 2009 lows, as shown on the graph below).

Immediate resistance is just above at a confluence of a 61.8% Fibonacci fanline, 50 dma, Monthly Volume Profile POC, Monthly VWAP, and the lower 1/3 level from the 2006 high to the 2009 low…price needs to clear and hold above 21.00 for a potential rally…otherwise, I'd look for more downside movement…looks like lots of volatility building here.


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Bullish on Real Estate

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Real estate ETFs are just about the only area recently whose bullishness I actually buy – – DRN, URE, and IYR are all super-looking charts. My largest long (by far), IYR, is poised for a breakout. In an era where it seems impossible to get the market to fall for more than one day (witness last Tuesday – sigh) one has to drum up charts that are not only bullish, but plausibly so.

0313-IYR

As I type this, it's 45 minutes to showtime. Good luck, everybody.

The Trickle-Down Effect

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I am already looking forward to about a week after the Facebook IPO. The onslaught of press at the time of the IPO is going to be stomach-churning. If you're not sick of Zuckerberg's face already, by God, you will be by then. So once they are public, give it about a week, and we can all get back to our lives.

It will also stamp out all this horniness for tech stocks that's running rampant. This Valley has gone into bubble-mode again, and it's hard to take.

Zuck lives three blocks from my house, and the only benefit I'm personally going to get out of the thousands of newly-minted zillionaires is that the value of my house will go up. Indeed, I just took this photo of an advertisement in my local paper showing what Palo Alto home prices have been doing lately (the most recent year is in black; the year prior is in orange).

0203-housing

So asset appreciation of something I actually own is something I can "Like."

Heh.