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I’m going to share a few tweets I made in recent hours to offer a few tidbits from what I’m thinking. If you don’t follow me on Twitter already, please do so, since I can be a real hoot sometimes. Anyway……..
Yesterday, I decided to make the helpful guide below, since God knows we’re going to be reminded constantly why stocks are going to rally Real Soon Now. Of course, they will, from time to time (like last Wednesday’s horrorfest), but it’ll always wind up for naught.
As I’m typing this, the jobs report came out about half an hour ago. I woke up a little before the report was released, and since that time, it seems to me the four has gone through four psychological stages:
Anticipation: ES down about 15 points. The market’s inner voice: “Gosh, I’m worried about these numbers. Yesterday was a really rough day. Maybe these numbers will give the market a chance to rally from these deeply-oversold levels.”
Indecision: ES up about 3 points. The market’s inner voice: “Hmm, these numbers are a mixed bag. There is really strong jobs growth, which lets the Fed keep cranking up rates, but it’s really hard to figure out.”
Relief: ES up about 10 points. The market’s inner voice: “Ya know what, this is good news after all! I mean, look at this wage growth! It’s only 0.3% instead of the expected 0.4%. Hey, maybe it’ll be a good day!”
Epiphany: ES down about 40 points. The market’s inner voice: “Who am I kidding? What goddamned difference does a tenth of a point in a single highly-manipulated report mean? This market is completely doomed, and being wet-nursed for the past thirteen years has made me soft, weak, and insipid. I’m a bad person. I don’t deserve to live. I hope I get trapped in an elevator with Jim Cramer, and the elevator’s cable breaks, and we ae falling to our deaths, and in our final moments, he confesses his love for me, forcing a tongue kiss, which compels me to kill myself even though the elevator will do it in just another few moments.”
OK, maybe I’m reading too much into that last one, but I’m pretty sure that’s what the market is thinking.
(more…)Good morning.
I’ll admit it. Sure, I’ll say it right out. I was completely relieved when I dangled off the side of my head, fired up my iPhone, and saw a bunch of red. After yesterday’s absolutely pointless mega-rally, I really wasn’t in the mood for anything but my favorite color.
I mean, just look at the ES. After yesterday’s eye-rolling, numb-skulled bull-fest, the price tagged TO THE PENNY the precisely level I identified as a potential peak, and then it spent hours jerking off in a comically tight range. It then took the escalator down to the next floor and jerked off there for hours. Security in this department store is going to be puzzled at the mess they find this the morning.
As of yesterday, the markets had spent the month in a steady progression of lower lows and lower highs. The most recent “lower high” to watch is represented here with an arrow.
