Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Last Thing I Expected Today

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……..was a profit.

Indeed, the moment I saw the news this weekend about the Yuan easing, I had a sinking feeling today (Monday) might be one of the worst trading days of my life. I didn't really grasp what the Yuan float news would mean, but once I read that Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama enthusiastically embraced the "good news", I was pretty sure my goose was cooked. After all, I was virtually totally short, and my portfolio was about 120% committed.

So my stomach was in knots Sunday, anticipating the opening of the Euro at 2 in the afternoon. Those knots went into spasms when the Euro exploded higher at the open. My worst fears settled down as the Euro softened up, but when the /ES opened up 14 points higher, I really started to worry.

On the way back home from Tahoe, I noticed the sudden and unexpected plunge in both the Euro and the /ES (I haven't read comments for the past two days, so I'm totally out of the loop as to what has happened the past 48 hours). The /ES gains were cut in half. My glimmer of hope, however, was soon dashed at dinnertime, as all the markets pushed to yet new highs. (Excuse the blow-by-blow, but the past 24 hours have felt very, very long, and I'm just reliving them for you here).

When I went to bed, I was seriously considering simply closing all my positions and closing up shop for the rest of the quarter in order to retain some profit for Q2. That was a disappointing prospect, because I've worked terribly hard, and simply throwing everything away in order to protect my remaining profits and bring risk to zero was an unsettling option, but it was one I was very seriously considering. I had a feeling it was going to be a very rough day.

I woke up at 5 a.m., went into my home office and was pleasantly surprised to see the Euro had gone into a hard fall during the night. I was outraged, however, when I fired up the /ES chart to see that it was as strong as ever. The "one-edged sword" seemed to be at play again; that is, the Euro strength helping the /ES but the Euro weakness having no effect.

I then made a decision to do something I don't think I've ever done: there's a special button on my trading platform labeled Xcl All Orders. It deletes every stop order in place (and there were 190 of them). I decided to click it, and I watched all the orders vanish (this, by the way, is the Willy Wonka reference; "I've pushed al the buttons except for this one"). It was a very considered decision. My feeling was that I would get popped out of a ton of positions at the worst prices of the day, and it was worth the risk to let the market be open for half an hour and then, one by one, reset all 190 of those prices using the latest information.

The market opened, and wham, it showed a loss of $130,000. That loss bounced around from $125,000 to $145,000, and I carefully watched. I then started going through all my charts, and by the time I was through, I had only decided a handful of positions merited closing.

Thank God I decided to cancel the orders and re-evaluate them. It is something I probably will almost never do, but in this instance, it was essential.

There's no need to take you through every tick of the day, but as the day wore on, the loss chipped away, piece by piece. It didn't erode all at once, of course. It wiggled up and down – – sometimes dramatically – – but I kept passing levels that improved the day. It got beneath $100,000. Later, it was beneath $50,000. Then $25,000. Then $10,000. And then – – Holy Moses!! – – into the green. Un….be…….lieveable.

I don't have a brain sufficiently large to understand how this whole Yuan float is ultimately going to effect things, but it definitely seems to rah-rah optimism that kicked off the day was badly misplaced. I'm sure a lot of folks gobbled up securities on the "good news", and they're all sitting on losses right now. Pity.

As I mentioned earlier today, I had good success shorting precious metals, although as I sit here right now, I only have a small short on the GDX. Overall, I've got 190 short positions and nothing else. The bottom line for me is that, as I go through my thousand or so stock charts in my watch list, there isn't a single one that strikes me as a compelling long. Even UNG, which I considered buying early in the day, seemed to be exhausted, and sure enough it completely keeled over.

So I remain completely short and, having gone through today, somewhat more confident than I was 24 hours ago. I also note with more than a little amusement that Market Sniper's postulate that my Laser Quest score of 1130 was in fact a message from God that we would retrace to that level came true magnificently today. If we don't see 1130 again, we can put that in the Spooky Hall of Fame.

The WAG is a DRAG

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Hi Everyone,

I went from posting-and-commenting-constantly (Wednesday) to disappearing-altogether (last couple of days). The reason is simple…….my all-short portfolio got hit hard in the face yesterday, and I've been thinking and repositioning ever since.

It was hardly a knockout punch. Due to my relatively conservative nature (compared to late '08 Tim, at least), I was down about 3.7%, but that is a very nasty loss for me on a daily basis, so Thursday was not the least bit pleasant.

As I mentioned earlier, I have acquired a number of badly-battered stocks, and I've gone even lighter on the bear side. The unsettling reality I am accepting is that the knock-em, sock-em, bear-blast of May has sputtered out, and we may be back to the pain-in-the-neck waiting game of before. Similar to Springheel Jack's post from this morning, I'm thinking we might be in for something like this:

0610-drag

Yes, I know this is the oh-so-obvious H&S everyone is talking about, but frankly I have no problem with obvious. What's important for me is not to get seduced into the attractive notion of a quick and brutal bear market. I get the sense more than a few people on the blog share my impatience, and that impatience can lead one to a bias that is unhelpful. I'd rather open my eyes up to the possibility of a market that calls for a lot more patience than is typical for me. Judging from how quickly the market recovered from this morning's wretched retail report, it seems altogether possible to me that the bulls are starting to wrest control away again.

Keep Your Enemies Closer

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I’ve been AWOL the past 36 hours, trying to turn my tanker ship of a portfolio around. I’ll probably be AWOL to some degree the rest of the day.

As anyone acquainted with federal statutes knows, if an American male is flipping through the channels, and The Godfather is on, he is required to watch it, no matter how many times he’s seen it already, and no matter what part of the movie he’s missed. It’s the law.

One of the best lines from the movie states that you should keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. I am adopting that attitude with stocks. The securities below I consider my “enemies”. They are junky issues; I don’t think they have a good future; and I think they are in for a silly bounce. So I bought them.

I’m going to keep a much closer eye on these than I normally would, since I own them, and I consider the fact that I own them to be the perfect tonic for my bad attitude toward them. When I think their profits have peaked, I can take comfort in those profits, and I can use that opportunity as a time to get aggressively short again. Until then, benefiting from the profits will make the rise much more bearable. Here are the symbols and their stops:

AEO 12.77

BAX 40.33

BC 15.88

BONT 9.63

BPOP 2.60

CSIQ 8.98

CSR 4.30

CYMI 29.23

EEFT 12.56

FAST 49.61

GAP 3.91

HLX 10.30

LCC 8.81

PMI 3.92

RIG 44.50

TGI 63.19

TIE 18.39

UIS 19.74

WDR 24.18

WG 8.14

You’ll Turn Blue and Die | Gartman’s Trading Rules (by Leisa)

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This is a retread post from my blog. It was originally posted on March 8, 2008. As a follow on to my evangelizing the utility of a blog, I wanted to say that I was able to search for these rules and retrieve them instantly. I hope that you find these useful to your trading education.


My best girlfriend's in-laws
have a really neat cabin on the Potomac river. It is on a point on a
creek off the river, and just a beautiful, restful place. During our
first visit, my daughter was a toddler. There was water all around, and
as any of you know, despite one's best efforts, children do manage to
separate themselves from you. One only has to pick up the paper to see
the tragic consequences.

It's hard to explain drowning to a 
toddler. So I adopted a tactic that would make the results of her going
into the water abundantly clear. I took her to the water. I explained
that it was deep and that she could not swim. I then said, "If you get
in the water and sink; you will turn blue and die." I asked if she
understood that. Now, I did not tell her any of this to give her
permission to wander around with this graven image in her head while I
kicked back and had cocktails. Rather, I wanted her to understand the
consequence of venturing into the water without a parent.

With
respect to investing and trading, all of us read the admonitions of
experienced folks that give us a list of warnings. We all read them.
Some read them and think that they are immune to them. Dennis Gartman
has a widely published list of rules that I thought I would resurrect. I
picked these up from The Big Picture (Barry Ritholtz's blog) which he published from John
Mauldin's newsletter.

To keep within the theme of this post, I
would title these: Dennis Gartman's Rules of Trading: If you break
them, your portfolio will turn blue and die"

R U L E # 1
Never, ever, under any
circumstance, should one add to a losing position … not EVER!

Averaging down into a losing trade is the only thing that will
assuredly take you out of the investment business. This is what took
LTCM out. This is what took Barings Brothers out; this is what took
Sumitomo Copper out, and this is what takes most losing investors out.

R U L E # 2
Never, ever, under any
circumstance, should one add to a losing position … not EVER!

We trust our point is made. If "location, location, location" are
the first three rules of investing in real estate, then the first two
rules of trading equities, debt, commodities, currencies, and so on are
these: never add to a losing position.

R U L E # 3
Learn
to trade like a mercenary guerrilla.

The great Jesse
Livermore once said that it is not our duty to trade upon the bullish
side, nor the bearish side, but upon the winning side. This is
brilliance of the first order. We must indeed learn to fight/invest on
the winning side, and we must be willing to change sides immediately
when one side has gained the upper hand.

R U L E # 4 DON'T
HOLD ON TO LOSING POSITIONS
Capital is in two varieties: Mental
and Real, and, of the two, the mental capital is the most important.

Holding on to losing positions costs real capital as one's account
balance is depleted, but it can exhaust one's mental capital even more
seriously as one holds to the losing trade, becoming more and more
fearful with each passing minute, day and week, avoiding potentially
profitable trades while one nurtures the losing position.

R
U L E # 5
GO WHERE THE STRENGTH IS
The objective of
what we are after is not to buy low and to sell high, but to buy high
and to sell higher, or to sell short low and to buy lower.

We
can never know what price is really "low," nor what price is really
"high." We can, however, have a modest chance at knowing what the trend
is and acting on that trend. We can buy higher and we can sell higher
still if the trend is up. Conversely, we can sell short at low prices
and we can cover at lower prices if the trend is still down. However,
we've no idea how high high is, nor how low low is.

R U L
E # 6

Sell markets that show the greatest weakness; buy
markets that show the greatest strength.

Metaphorically,
when bearish we need to throw our rocks into the wettest paper sack for
it will break the most readily, while in bull markets we need to ride
the strongest wind for it shall carry us farther than others.

R
U L E # 7

In a Bull Market we can only be long or
neutral; in a bear market we can only be bearish or neutral.

In
a bull market we can be neutral, modestly long, or aggressively
long–getting into the last position after a protracted bull run into
which we've added to our winning position all along the way. Conversely,
in a bear market we can be neutral, modestly short, or aggressively
short, but never, ever can we–or should we–be the opposite way even so
slightly.

R U L E # 8
"Markets can
remain illogical far longer than you or I can remain solvent."

The University of Chicago "boys" have argued for decades that the
markets are rational, but we in the markets every day know otherwise. We
must learn to accept that irrationality, deal with it, and move on.

R U L E # 9
Trading runs in cycles; some
are good, some are bad, and there is nothing we can do about that other
than accept it and act accordingly.

Thus, when things are
going well, trade often, trade large, and try to maximize the good
fortune that is being bestowed upon you. However, when trading poorly,
trade infrequently, trade very small, and continue to get steadily
smaller until the winds have changed and the trading "gods" have chosen
to smile upon you once again.

R U L E # 10
To
trade/invest successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a
technician.

It is obviously imperative that we understand
the economic fundamentals that will drive a market higher or lower, but
we must understand the technicals as well. When we do, then and only
then can we, or should we, trade.

R U L E # 11
Keep
your technical systems simple.

The greatest
traders/investors we've had the honor to know over the years continue to
employ the simplest trading schemes. They draw simple trend lines, they
see and act on simple technical signals, they react swiftly, and they
attribute it to their knowledge gained over the years that complexity is
the home of the young and untested.

R U L E # 12
In
trading/investing, an understanding of mass psychology is often more
important than an understanding of economics.

Markets are,
as we like to say, the sum total of the wisdom and stupidity of all who
trade in them, and they are collectively given over to the most basic
components of the collective psychology. The dot-com bubble was indeed a
bubble, but it grew from a small group to a larger group to the largest
group, collectively fed by mass mania, until it ended. The economists
among us missed the bull-run entirely, but that proves only that markets
can indeed remain irrational, and that economic fundamentals may
eventually hold the day but in the interim, psychology holds the moment.

And finally the most important rule of all:

R U L E
# 13

Do more of that which is working and do less of
that which is not.

This is a simple rule in writing; this
is a difficult rule to act upon. However, it synthesizes all the modest
wisdom we've accumulated over thirty years of watching and trading in
markets. Adding to a winning trade while cutting back on losing trades
is the one true rule that holds–and it holds in life as well as in trading/investing.

Dennis Gartman: This
is what I have learned about the world of investing over three decades.
I try each day to stand by my rules. I fail miserably at times, for I
break them often, and when I do I lose money and mental capital, until
such time as I return to my rules and try my very best to hold strongly
to them. The losses incurred are the inevitable tithe I must make to the
markets to atone for my trading sins. I accept them, and I move on, but
only after vowing that "I'll never do that again."

Dispiriting Adulation – Why I Covered

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As the author of this blog, I have access to a kind of insider information that no one else does. Namely, however much people hate or love what I'm saying.

I'm not talking about Slopers. I mean the outside world. The infidels. The others.

Back on Sunday, May 9, I wrote a post strongly encouraging the bulls to buy like mad. I wrote this in a style that made it obvious I wanted them to bid stocks up merely so I could short them. A couple of folks – MiniFlowTrader and FuturesDude (who have twitter accounts with maybe 30 followers each) decided I would "regret" this as that indeed the market was a "helluva dip to buy." I've marked the date when they sent out these tweets to their handful of followers:

0520-jeanyus
Well, I got my wish – – a bid-up market, and a fantastic shorting opportunity. So when I see snark like the above, I think it's a great sign. The same goes for hate mail like this:

0521-hatemail

I'm a contrarian, and when the unwashed masses think I'm an idiot, that's probably a good sign.

What's happened recently is quite the opposite. I've gotten deluged with thank-yous and love letters. Now, listen, it's appreciated – – don't get me wrong. I work really hard on Slope, and it's nice to get a pat on the back. But when the dam bursts and I'm flooded with love, to me, that's a bell ringing. And that was a pretty big factor in my decision to cover and, to a degree, go long.

I think we've got a rough, weird, gruesome climb up to as high as 1170 on the /ES. My trading is going to be very light until then. I'll probably focus on just day-trading some big ETFs. But once we're a lot higher, I'm going to get a lot more aggressive. And – with luck – there will be ample bulls out there to tell me what a fool I am. I sure hope so!