Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Wrong For All The Right Reasons (by Mark St.Cyr)

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One can’t help but look at the financial markets close as of Friday
and not shake their head in bewilderment. For anyone (including myself)
that has expressed caution since the beginning of this historic rise we
are left scratching our heads. The mantra of “Don’t fight the Fed” has
just been spot on. However, that saying was used far before, and for
other reasons than to explain what we are currently witnessing today.

Some only read the headlines trying to extrapolate any discernible
information for what we see taking place. Others just use a “going with
the flow” type strategy because they don’t know what else to do. It can
work for a time however, it can set oneself up to do exactly the wrong
things at the wrong times.

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You Can’t Make This Stuff Up (by Trade Flight Plan)

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It's a wonder that Pump 'n Dump schemes continue to try and prey on unsuspecting investors.  Although it's hard to imagine this stuff is legal, the frequency of penny stock solicitations in our inbox suggests these schemes are alive and well.

Every now and then, an email slips through that really offers some nice entertainment value.

The latest solication arrived last week, on 12/12/12 of all days for ticker symbol PFNI.  You would think that the Psychic Friends Network Inc., of all companies, would have an edge in forecasting future stock price appreciation.  We are not making this stuff up.

PFNI

Just for kicks, a few days later, let's take a look at how PFNI is faring in the markets with its stampede of new investors.  The yellow arrow points to the daily price candle on 12/12/12, when the spam – er marketing – email was received.

Chart

 Instead of heading to the $1 level very soon, as prognosticated by Elliott Dobbs, esteemed publisher (but obviously not a psychic), we actually crater to nearly zero the past two trading days.  You just can't make this stuff up.

Fear And Success In Trading (by Market Sniper)

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All of us are afraid of something. To say or think you are not afraid of anything is self delusion. Lack of fear is not bravery either. Bravery is being afraid and still following through and taking care of the task at hand.

There are two fears we must overcome to be successful traders as these two fears will hinder and handicap your ability to make money while trading markets. These fears can freeze you in your tracks. Not only will they hinder your abilities as a trader but but also handicap you in all other aspects of life as well.


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Complacency Everywhere You Look

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Here is a brief commentary from Panzner Insights, which I posted on Thursday:

When trying to get a handle on investor sentiment, the benchmark of choice for many market-watchers is the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, or VIX. However, this popular “fear gauge” only offers a snapshot of implied volatility, or relative pricing levels, for equity index options, which might not necessarily tell us all we need to know about the mood on The Street.

In theory, stock traders could be overreacting to equity-specific developments that are not relevant to other markets.

Impliedvolatilitylow

That said, there is data that suggests the high levels of complacency in the stock market are also being seen elsewhere. As the chart shows, gauges of implied volatility levels for equity, bond, currency, gold, and oil markets are at or near multi-month lows, suggesting that “the crowd” is unanimous in its belief that nothing untoward is going to happen in the immediate future.

Should we be worried?

Benpecked

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henpecked Benpecked (‘ben·pekd)

Definition

adjective

  1. (of a man stock trader) continually harassed or tormented by the persistent nagging of a woman central bank chairman (esp. his wife Ben Bernanke)

Ben-pecked

As I’ve discussed quite a bit lately, what makes the recent Sept
14-Nov 17th correction different from all other similar sell-offs in
recent years is the lack of fear this time around.  There are generally
two types of traders who short the market, other than commercial
hedgers:  The “permabears”, who always think the market is going to drop
and those more adept, flexible traders who are just as comfortable
trading the short side as the long side, depending on the charts,
valuation, and other market metrics.  I like to believe that I fall into
the latter categorization but I digress.

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