Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chasing the Babe Ruth Effect

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Babe Ruth certainly need no presentation, but what needs presentation is the “Babe Ruth Effect” which is a nickname that some bank analysts gave in the early 2000s to a classic goal of many investment managers: hitting a home run.

baberuth_1106
It quickly became the wet dream of many retail investors as well: pick the new Microsoft, or the new Google (or the new Amazon, as of lately) but also some well-researched market theorists like Nassim Taleb fell for the same idea, that what matters is to make one big home run on the right trading idea or investment, and you will make a kill and be set for life.

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Well THAT Was Stupid

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I am so furious at myself. And I don’t normally give Springheel Jack’s post so little time, but I had to get this off my chest.

Remember that terrific day I had yesterday thanks to energy? Well, it’s been completely unwound by a huge rally in crude oil. It’s like it never happened.

Well, that sucks, but why am I so mad at myself? Simple. I ignored the clearest, most important indicator ever, as shown below.

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Now let me be stone cold clear here: I’m not trying to cute, clever, witty, funny, or snarky. I’m dead serious. I had before me the closest thing to a foolproof signal ever created in human existence, and I thought, “well, maybe it’s different this time.”

Shame on me. Shame. On. Me.

Too Good to Be True?

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Well, it’s confession time: I’m scared.

I know as the designated martyr for equity bears, I should show more steely-eyed steadfastness, but the past six years have put the zap on my brain, and memories of what this jackass did a year ago still haunt me.

In a strange way, though, my fear is borne from the suspicion that the charts I am seeing are simply too good to be true. If I were to contribute a chapter to a book on charting called This Is What A Top Looks Like, the hypothetical, idealized charts would look like this:

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Now and Then

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I was thinking of making this post a video, but I recognize that the problem with videos is that you actually have to watch the damned thing. Text and pictures are more accessible. So, here we are.

October has, in the five trading days we’ve experienced so far, been a big disappointment for me. I guess I should have assumed it would be, coming on the heels of a fantastic Q3 (both for my portfolio and for Slope in general). Everything goes in cycles. I’m just too much of a brat to be able to tolerate this kind of thing.

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