Welcome to a new day of suspense. I was reading this article last night, and it suggested an 85% chance that the threat of big new tariffs was a total bluff. Indeed, the likelihood of the “risk off” kind of event that would thrill me is a mere 15%.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Binkius Update
Preface from Tim: It’s been a long time since we’ve heard from Binkius Hippo (this one was from three months ago), but he emailed me this morning and, at my request, has allowed me to share his email here. I always appreciate his intelligent, well-informed perspective.
“You go to war with the army you have, not the army you wished you had.”
(more…)A Joe Biden Stock Market
Former Vice-President Joe Biden may run for President in the 2020 election. He stated recently that his platform would be the Obama/Biden policies of yesteryear.
Were he to be elected, and if the old Obama policies were resurrected, we could very well see the S&P 500 Index return to pre-Trump levels around the 2200 level, or lower, as shown on the monthly chart below.
In the two years since President Trump took office, the SPX has gained around the same number of points as it did in the last four years of Obama’s presidency. Those gains are in jeopardy, as uncertainty will weigh on markets in anticipation of a possible return to a more socialist agenda under Biden, or an even more far-left leaning Democrat.
(more…)Decision 2024
Now that the long-awaited Mueller investigation is done, the predictable camps have formed: one calling for impeachment, and another wanting to just put the entire matter to rest forever. In a few weeks, the latter camp will succeed.
But I think it is more worthwhile to look ahead – – far ahead – – to anticipate what might be next. A combination of history, politics, and financial markets blend together into some intriguing possibilities, and I would like to offer my own theory as to what the next six years may hold.
(more…)
