Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

I Heartily Recommend this Book

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Over the past couple of weeks, I have had a marvelous time reading this book by James Rickards named Currency Wars. As you might guess, it is an analysis of how countries use their currencies for whatever self-interested intentions they may have (either good or bad). I love history, and the way this book weaves together history and economics makes it hard for me to put down. It also makes what's going on right now easier for me to grasp (and fear).

1207-currencyHere's a bit about the book:

In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.

Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.

Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict."

It's pretty unusual for me to make a post about any book (except for one I've written), but Currency Wars is an exception. You can get it by clicking here. If you're interested in a general list of books I suggest for traders, it's right here.

Let Justice Be Done

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I have been writing this blog for seven long years. During that time, this blog has stood for what matters to me as a person: truth, logic, justice, and reason.

The America I grew up with has already been destroyed, and we are witnessing a world whose leaders are slapping coat after coat of whitewash on a situation that will absolutely lead to global ruination and, thereafter, recalibration. The world's population, 99% of which stews in a cauldron of ignorance or apathy, allows more wood to be thrown onto the fire beneath with the misplaced hope that everything will, in the end, turn out fine, just like on their favorite SitCom.

This isn't a SitCom. It's a tragicomedy. And, month by month, week by week, day by day, and tick by tick, we are watching it unfold.

I say what I have said a thousand times – – if everything had simply been allowed to do what it naturally needed to do back in 2008, the entire world would already been healing, and I'd probably be as obnoxiously bullish as I am currently bearish.

Instead, wholly artificial means have been force-fed to the world, meaning that (a) the necessary pain has been delayed, not denied; (b) the eventual pain will be an order of magnitude higher than it needed to be in the first place.

I write this now, merely because the past couple of hours encapsulates what I'm talking about. On the one hand is the 727th bailout of this year being announced, forcing equities and the Euro to explode skyward. This is the hand of artifice.

On the other hand is the mere rumor of a change by S&P in its disposition toward the large European countries – – not even a downgrade, but just a move to "credit watch" – – swiftly laid waste to much of these gains. This is the hand of truth, and, in this instance, it's a tiny, tiny hand.

I believe with every fiber of my being that, in the end, justice will prevail and the world's economies will be forced to endure the horrible pain they must endure in order to become normal, natural, and real again. Free enterprise is what I embrace, and what we are living through now sickens me.

I want the change to come now, but we are powerless to make things happen any faster. We can only watch as the Merkels of the world – – – and the Yellens of the United States – – – continue with their insufferable meddling, allowing the pernicious disease to spread and get stronger.

And so we watch, and we wait. And we try to survive, if not prosper, while we do so. Watch yourselves. The market is getting more dangerous with each passing day.

Gosh, What a Collapse!

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Well, in spite of repeated warnings from ol' Big Nose and Blubber Butt, the mere fact that the entire European continent seems headed toward a complete shipwreck isn't mattering a tinker's cuss. The Big Resolution this weekend, which G-20 demanded be finished by TODAY, amounted to little more than a bunch of dirty goblets and dishes that the catering had to deal with.

So at this point the promise is that by Wednesday – Honest! – – Honest Injun!! – – everything will be, like, totally figured out.

It's really pissing me off, beause until the Grand Plan is announced, I'm tying my hands. There is no way I want to get aggressively short with this Stupid Looming News on the horizon, which probably will be the shortable event of the year.

But until then, we can all gasp in awe at the absolute devastation being wrought as I'm typing this. There is not just one pip but multiple pips being shredded from the Euro! Hang on to your hats, everyone!

1024-STFU