Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Janus Flag Targets

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On Friday afternoon. in the webinar I posted on my twitter, I was talking about the either way setup that had formed on equity indices with the formation and break down from head and shoulders patterns on SPX, NDX, RUT and INDU. I noted that on this setup there were only two strong targets to watch, and that was either a move to the H&S target, on SPX a retracement to the May low at 2766, or a rejection back up into a retest of the June high. In the case of the rejection that would be a pattern that I would call a Janus (Bull) Flag, I see a lot of these and they make the rejection/retest target 80% to 90% of the time. When the target isn’t reached there is often a near miss.

The H&S patterns have since all failed, so the Janus Flag targets are fixed on all of those indices and in the absence of strong evidence to the contrary, I’m expecting those targets to be reached.SPX 60min chart:

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Wrong!

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As I’ve mentioned, I’ve ceased my habit of checking out the “weekend betting” site to see what the markets are doing, because it’s just useless, wrong, and a waste of time. I haven’t even peeked in weeks. I did look, however, at the actual market when the Globex opened, and after the gap down, all of the predictable, boring, and unfunny “it’ll be green by the open” comments tumbled in. I just had to say something.

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The Greatest Fool

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It has been strange watching the markets climb higher in this tremendously strong impulse at the same time as the Fed and others have been talking about a possible contraction in world GDP this year of 25% or more, by far the worst world contraction on record, in the shortest time. I noticed an analyst tweeting about a conversation he had with a four year old last week about the markets where the four year old was talking about just buying in the expectation that an even greater fool would buy the position at an even more absurdly higher price in the near future. That seemed surreal, but the markets look increasingly surreal at the moment.

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America Is Burning – Buy!

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SPX made it to the 3100 area as expected, and a bit higher, and is now at the last big inflection point area before a retest of the all time highs. Why is this a big area? Well this is the last big fibonacci retracement level, and there are two significant high levels here, the first rally high after the all time high at 3136.72, and the November 2019 high at 3154.26 made on the move up to the all time high. A break over these levels is fine, but if 3154.26 is converted to support then that opens the way for a possible test of the all time high at 3393.52. That’s a real possibility now, but we should at least see a retracement from this area.

SPX daily chart:

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