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It has been discouraging, to say the least. The small caps have exploded 8% higher since Friday based on………..what?………the promise of yet another miracle cure? Covid ain’t the problem, folks. The economy is rotten to the core, but self-delusion is as popular as disco was in 1977. This is mass hypnosis gone berserk.
Yesterday’s big NASDAQ reversal got plenty of attention. As has been widely reported, the last time yesterday’s phenomenon (that is, lifetime high coupled with a big intraday reversal) happened was only once, in March 2000. The big question now is if the intermediate-term trendline from March 23rd will hold or not:
One thing I try to stress in these posts is that the movement of the market can, to a significant extent, be broken down into a series of inflection points and, depending on the outcomes at those inflection points, the market moves to the next inflection point or screen.
Last week there was a very nicely formed inflection point and the decision at that inflection point was made on Friday, with a smaller bull flag channel ultimately breaking up with a target at a retest of the short term high at 3184.15, and a larger bull flag channel also breaking up with a target at a retest of the June high at 3233.13. Both targets have now been reached, with the high today on SPX at a marginal higher high at 3235.32.
Was this good news for bulls? Well not necessarily no, as my bear scenario had a decline ideally into the 2880 area before a likely retest of the June high to set up a possible double top for this move up since the March low. As that retest has been done now instead, that possible double top has been set up earlier and SPX has arrived at this next inflection point.
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I was reading a very interesting article yesterday on the progress of COVID-19 and it was interesting not so much because of what was said, as for the decent quality numbers that it was quoting on COVID-19 exposures in the US population, and the fatality rate from the now decently sized statistical sample of exposed population and consequent deaths. In summary about 5% to 8% of the US population has now been exposed and are showing antibodies, and the death rate so far, subject to some likely attribution of deaths to other causes, is coming through at between 0.49% to 0.78% of those exposed. If you’d like to see the source article you can see that here.
If you haven’t seen it before I’ll be referring back to my 20th March post ‘A Short History Of Superflu Pandemics‘ and so I’m linking back to that for reference.
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