Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Biotech Pattern

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The biotech sector fund symbol XBI has a nice little head and shoulders pattern that is almost complete.

xbi

And now, apropos of nothing. You’d think about fifteen years of doing this, I’d have an incredibly acute awareness of my traffic. But I’ve only started paying attention. Turns out Monday is huge. Much bigger than I expected. But the big surprise for me is that Friday is way less popular than I imagined. It’s truly like people enter the trading week rarin’ to go, but by Thursday night, they’ve had enough. Interesting.

Stretched

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SPX broke up through both of the inflection points that I was looking at in my post earlier this week with the second one at the island top gap into 3337.75 yesterday. SPX here is very stretched, but that doesn’t mean that it can’t go higher, and there are no longer any significant resistance levels between here and a retest of the all time high, which I’m now leaning towards seeing before SPX makes the next serious retracement.

A serious retracement is of course a retracement strong enough to break and convert the daily middle band and then likely deliver a reversion to the mean move or more. I was asked earlier this week what I meant by that and I’m going to take a little time today to explain what I mean as it is very simple and extremely easy to incorporate into your market views if you don’t have a system to do this already.

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Sequel on the Way?

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Note from Tim: In the pandemonium that ensues after someting as big as the jobs report, it’s best to just let both sides duke it out a while and let the opening bell ring before trying to draw any conclusions about the reactions to the ostensibly good report. So, in the meanwhile……..

Cinemark was blasted to smithereens during the all-too-brief wipeout earlier this earlier………..

slopechart CNK
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Testing 3300 on SPX

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The nice topping setup from my post last week failed to deliver, with SPX finding support once again at the daily middle band, and the very nice bull flag channel on NDX failed to break down as I was hoping it might. Instead it continued to form and delivered the high retest that we have seen this week. So what now? Well the high retests on NDX and SPX have of course set up possible alternate double top setups which are again of high quality, so this is the next important inflection point,and in the event that the SPX daily middle band continues to be solid support, perhaps the last inflection point before a retest of the all time high on SPX.

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Possible H&S Forming Here

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SPX didn’t quite reach the 3290 bull scenario target area that I was talking about last week but made a respectable 3280 or so before rejecting back into a retest of the established support and possible H&S neckline in the 3200 area. The SPX hourly RSI 14 sell signal reached the possible near miss target and an RSI 5 buy signal has now fixed.

Interestingly the high last week established a possible new rising wedge resistance trendline from the March lows, which is a development that I’m watching with interest, as the retracement since has broken rising wedge support and has put SPX into a possible topping process.

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