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Call it the Peloton rally, if you like. This one stock neatly sums up what’s been going on since September 24th. Here we have a company that sells stationary bicycles (with a recurring monthly fee) that has gone up 50% in just a few weeks, reaching lifetime highs virtually every day. Their market cap is $35 billion. Of course, they’ve never earned a single penny.
I was looking at the inflection point setting up here in my post yesterday and it is now fully set up and looking good. At this stage I am looking for either a break up towards a retest of the all time highs on both SPX and NDX, or a hard fail that delivers new retracements lows, though we could see a limited retracement here that preceded the break up.
On the SPX daily chart there is no current divergence but SPX is now testing and slightly over the daily upper band.
SPX daily chart:
(more…)Well I tried to talk about face masks and COVID-19 in my last post and that was my least popular post in years. I would note from the responses that wearing a mask is primarily for the protection of others from those infected with COVID-19, so wearing one is not so much a matter of personal courage as consideration for others. In response to a couple of questions I was asked I would also add that I’m happy to say that I am in a low risk age group, and that the only member of my family in a high risk group has already had and survived the virus so personally I’m not too concerned. Be all that as it may it seems that I should abandon trying to talk about COVID-19 until after the presidential election.
(more…)There are a mere 18 trading days between now and the end of election day. I have already dialed down my exposure to I-barely-even-care levels (75% committed, 28 positions), and I may drop it even more. The level of “do whatever it takes to win” manipulation going on right now is stomach-churning, and I’m just not interested. Powell knows full well that a plunging market would destroy the Fed, and he is smart enough to realize he’s got to keep the current guy in office for that to happen. So BRRRRRRR is set to “11”.
I will point out, however, a rather remarkable pitchfork pattern I stumbled across moments ago on the IWM. I’ll let the chart speak for itself, but I find it pretty cool:
As I am typing this, 100% of yesterday’s stimulus-talks-killed (but not really) collapse has been reversed. In spite of this, allow me to show you three megacap NASDAQ stocks with key technical features that merit attention.
The first, Apple, is the repulsion of prices from the broken trendline, and the others, Amazon and Alphabet, will both complete glorious patterns if (and only if!) they slip beneath the horizontals I’ve highlighted.
