My daughter went back to university on Saturday and that was the end of the holidays for me. They were the most relaxing for me in years which was nice, but all good things come to an end.

The UK is back on full lockdown until at least March due to the new COVID variant and that may last into the middle of the year. This new variant is much more transmissible it seems and many UK hospitals are close to being closed to new admissions, so the impact on health infrastructure is considerably greater than it was in the first wave of infections. This is the second wave. There are some cases of this new variant in the US but hopefully it won’t become widespread.

There were three waves in the 1918 pandemic, but with luck the new vaccines will allow us to skip wave three. It will of course take several months to a year to vaccinate everyone who wants a vaccination though. On to the markets.

On the SPX monthly chart there is now a clear monthly upper band ride and the monthly upper band is now rising strongly. The SPX monthly upper band is now at 3781 and could reach 3800 by the end of the month if SPX keeps rising. (more…)