Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Next Upside Targets

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Obviously SPX broke up at the last inflection point and may well be on the way to the resistance trendline I mentioned in my last post, currently in the 4400 area.

I’m still leaning towards seeing a decent backtest of the 4000 area over the summer sometime and ideally that backtest would reach the 3800 area. I’ll explain why that is in another post over the holiday weekend and if we were to see that retracement, and then found decent support there, it would set up a potentially very bullish scenario for another leg up.

In the shorter term, the rising wedge from March 2020  broke down on the last retracement and if that break was just an expansion of the wedge, then we should see that test of wedge resistance in the 4400 area next. If seen I will then redraw the wedge support as unbroken.

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Powerful Paper

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I have long held that gold would be driven by USD/JPY, and at the start of this calendar year, it was looking very promising for gold, because the US dollar (one kind of toilet paper) was becoming more worthless than the Japanese Yen (another kind of toilet paper). I’ve marked this point with a green arrow. However, the US toilet paper has appreciated handsomely against the Japanese variety, so much so that a bullish breakout has transpired (green circle).

usdbreak
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Chart Envy

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Oh, how I wish the stock market was still a market. That’s why I’m so fixated on crypto. The irony is that I’m actually invested in equities yet am in all-cash in crypto-land, as we’re still merely range-bound. But, as I’ve said countless times, it is a true organic market and totally chart-friendly. I haven’t been surprised even once yet. Bitcoin is absolutely respecting its trendline with pinpoint accuracy.

slopechart BTC
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The Next Inflection Point

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I remember a reader describing me a few years ago as an ‘if, then’ analyst, and that was a pretty decent description, as nothing is ever certain and markets move from one inflection point to the next, where there is another ‘if, then’ decision to be made.

I was talking in my last post about the possibility that SPX would break up into a high retest, and it did, so the H&S is no longer forming, and the setup on SPX is now a possible nested double top setup. I went though decades of charts on SPX a few years ago and calculated that some 70% of highs and lows on SPX were some kind of double top or bottom so that isn’t necessarily bullish so far.

In the short term a very decent quality rising wedge has formed from the last low at 4164, so I’m expecting that to break down and at least deliver a retracement. If we see a retracement back to the 4164 low, that is now double top support on the smaller of the two nested double top setups.

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