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Last weekend I was looking at the higher probability bear flag formation options on SPX and was looking at the resistance trendline on the chart below as the highest quality bear flag resistance trendline. That’s in the 4050 area now, having eliminating the triangle option in the move up this week, and SPX successfully negotiated the very bearish historical stats yesterday to reach the 4000 area this morning.
SPX 15min chart:
In my last post I was talking about the possibility of a triangle forming on SPX. That triangle arguably then finished wave D at the low that day and then broke down the next. Had that been a bear flag triangle then the target would then have been a retest of the 2022 low, but it seems likely from the action since then that if there is a bear flag forming here short term, which seems likely, then it is still forming.
I’ve drawn in some trendline options on the SPX chart below for a possible larger bear flag triangle or rising megaphone. The megaphone resistance trendline is in the 4025 area is the highest obvious option.
(more…)SPX didn’t retest the retracement low on Tuesday and that blew the best chance to do that in the next few days. The stats for today through Tuesday lean modestly bullish, and fairly strongly bullish on Wednesday and Thursday. This doesn’t mean that SPX has to close higher on all or indeed any of those days, but it does mean that the bulls have the wind at their backs on those days rather than trying to advance against it. The next day with a significantly bearish lean is July opex on Friday 15th July.
In the short term SPX gapped over the daily middle band yesterday and that was the first serious short term resistance. If we are to see a retest of the retracement low in the next few days, which is still possible, then the clearest indication for that would be a daily rejection candle today that rolled back yesterday’s candle entirely and delivered a clear close back below the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 3630.
(more…)I hope everyone had a great Independence Day weekend. For some obscure historical reason that isn’t a public holiday over here in the UK, but as I work US hours I had a very pleasant long weekend.
I’m going to look at the short and longer term prospects for SPX here, and I’ll start with an important longer term chart, the SPX monthly chart where there has now been a monthly close below the key support & resistance trendline on SPX since the 2009 low.
That opens the possibility for further downside and we may well be seeing that either sooner or later.
(more…)Hello from the master suite of the Knight Chalet, where I am being pushed to the edge of my bed by the trio of dogs here with me. I wanted to cobble together a post with a few thoughts about the index charts as we’re at the 50% mark on the progress bar of the year 2022. Please find the charts below, with some off-the-cuff comments in the caption for each.
