I was saying in my post on Monday that a fail at the test of the daily middle band generally happens in one of two ways. The first way is the usual test and fail, and the second is a break above that is rejected the next day. Obviously SPX took the second option and delivered a memorable rejection candle. That was bearish with an obvious minimum target at a retest of the daily lower band, which closed yesterday at 3823. I’m expecting that target to be reached, and likely lower. A retest in the next few weeks of the 2022 low at 3636.87 is now firmly on the table as my primary scenario.
(more…)Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The Latest Lovely Lines
Good morning, everyone, from pitch-black Palo Alto. It’s been quite the week, and I’ve got to say two adjacent things right at the top: (a) the market has been amazingly chart-friendly (b) shame on me for missing some of that chart-friendliness in real time. (Although I’ll add (c) NOT shame on me for actually anticipating some of this stuff in advance, even though I myself ignored it!)
Look at what’s going on with the /ES futures. Tuesday, of course, was our amazing CPI tumble. Wednesday and the first portion of Thursday were the “grinding away” period, clinging tightly to the trendline. Yesterday (and here’s the part I’m upset with myself about) the market fell hard, went roaring higher, and did a PERFECT touch of the aforementioned “clinging” trendline (blue arrow) at which time it did a miniature version of the Tuesday plunge. Since then, we’ve been leaking lower.
Cup with Handle Breakout Complete
Black Hole Level Gravitational Pull
Tech Support or Failure?
I present below the ratio chart of $NDX to $SPX. The big question: is this the ideal place to buy tech stocks, since we’re at the supporting trendline, or is this the place where support cracks and tech goes from Bad to Worse? I’m guessing the latter, but you know how I am.
