Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I have good news about my IYR trade that I’ve lamented endlessly for months: it expires on Friday, and I’ve deleted it from my spreadsheet, so I won’t have to burden you with any more “oh, what COULD have been” wails anymore. We’ll all just admit it went up 666% (seriously) after I dumped it, and that’s that.
My “new” IYR, which I hope I don’t screw up, is health care, XLV. I love this diamond top.
One year ago, I wrote about a stock named Silvergate (symbol SI) which I described as “one of the very, very few stocks I think is in a legitimately bullish pattern.” At the time, that was true:
On Friday morning I was writing that SPX went back onto my Three Day Rule on the break back over the 5dma at the close on Thursday night. Under that rule, if either of the next two closes delivers a clear break back below the 5dma, then the prior low, in this case 3491.58, will be retested before the prior high, in this case 3806.91. There was a clear close back below the 5dma on Friday, so that is a fix on the rule.
Now this is the most impressive performing market stat that I have ever seen anywhere about anything. There have been nine previous fixes so far in 2022, all of which made target and I’d estimate somewhere in the region of 100 – 200 fixes since the start of 2007, which is as far back as I looked when I first investigated this in 2011/2. With a minor rule fix in 2019 requiring a clear close below the 5dma for a fix, every one of those has made target barring a couple of very near misses when a triangle has been forming at the low.
(more…)Taking a tidy sum from the markets is our goal.
Talking recently with a longtime Sloper, he commented, “It’s just a trade to make a living. To get some.”
That’s what we’re here to do: Get some.
There are hundreds of ways, different strategies, to try and extract money from the markets. Have it Your way. The best strategy is the one you’ve determined for yourself. Do that.
Hard to do perhaps, but if you are able to see your way clear to remove any bias, outside influence, even news, Do That. Instructive words are, Only Price Pays.
In the spirit of All-That-Matters-Is Support-and-Resistance, these charts are offered in the hope that they help you get sum.
Apologies for this being the only post this week. I’m moving house in a few weeks and I’ve been really busy.
In my last post I was looking at the possible hard fail setup on SPX, NDX, IWM and Dow if the inverted H&S patterns that had broken up failed on moves back below the right shoulder lows on those patterns. On that fail there would be targets back at the retests of the 2022 lows and the last of those four low retest targets were hit at the low yesterday.
SPX tested the 200 week moving average for the third time this week and did an impressive pinocchio below it yesterday morning, though SPX recovered back over it quickly. For what it’s worth that was the largest pinocchio down through it since the low in 2009, excluding of course the hard break below it in 2020.
(more…)
