Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The 1812 Overture

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If I may indulge in a bit of escapist fantasy (and I’ve probably made it quite clear this so-called market is something I’d quite like to escape, or at least exchange for a real one). Here’s my dream scenario:

  1. This ridiculous political theatre leads to some kind of bargain;
  2. The market, trained like a mass of imbeciles to rally on what is touted as good news, does so;
  3. The /RTY pushes its way back up to 1827 or thereabouts, which is a major point of resistance;
  4. I get the opportunity to load up on puts again at good prices;
  5. The market realizes it’s been had (again) and starts selling off for weeks
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NVDA Target More Than Achieved

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As Nvidia approaches $800 billion in “value” and a P/E of 200, I wanted to share with you a simple fact of classic pattern analysis: the target price for this extraordinarily well-formed inverted H&S pattern was $300. We have met (and exceeded) this level, which I’ve tinted in green, and we’re now just a few percentage points below the lifetime high achieved in November 2021 during the peak of post-Covid mania.

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A Dozen Remarks

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As we enter a new trading week, I wanted to go through the most interesting index charts and say a few words about each. You’ll find these musings in the caption area, and, as always, you can click on a chart for a larger version. The first three are visible to everyone, and the rest are only for paying members.

The “face-off” with the All World Index remains agonizingly unresolved. I’ve got to say, this looks like it “wants” to break out. On the other hand, a slump out of this pattern (that is to say, lower and to the right) would be devastating for the bulls.
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Back At Major Resistance

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Well the bearish stats for Wednesday and Thursday this week did not deliver, which was remarkable yesterday as at the start of the day there were hourly sell signals fixed on all of ES, NQ, RTY & YM. That equities went up hard instead was an impressive show of strength, bringing SPX back up into a full test of key resistance at the monthly middle band, now at 4169.46, but not broken until there is a monthly close above it, and the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low.

That is still very strong resistance, but after the rejection back up here, and the very strong action over the last two days, I’m increasing the odds of a break above from 25% from 35%.

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