Below is symbol XLP, the fund for the Consumer Staples sector.

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The best-formed pattern (and pretty much the only decent pattern) on the equity futures right now is the Russell 2000, which has an exceptional head and shoulders top. I am tempted to short this sucker, but it seems like a Siren song to me. In other words, almost too good to be true, and luring me in to trap me. That’s a silly thought, perhaps, because this is honestly a fantastic pattern.

The ridiculous ChatGPT fad is rapidly fading in the rearview mirror, and we’re seeing the stocks which benefited from this baseless mania diminish as well. The eponymous leader of this is, naturally, ticker symbol AI, whose channel failure suggests a fundamental change in direction for months to come.

Let’s get serious about the semiconductor index. This beast has a perfectly good chance of completing a relatively small but spectacularly well-formed head & shoulders top. Indeed, it would take only one good down day, no more dazzling than Friday’s, to get the job done. I would like to offer unto you my target for such a measured move, tinted in green:

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