Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Soft Yen For Copper

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In my last post, I saw possible chart-based turning points for the dollar and its component currencies, but bemoaned the lack of commercial positions data (except for the Yen) to support such an event. And as usual, the data overruled the charts and the dollar continued to work its way up and take the Euro, Pound and Yen down with it.

Ironically, where the commercial positions data did show a large long Yen position, the Yen did not go down to the extremes of the Euro and Pound. The lesson learned is the supporting data can turn a pure guess at a chart formation into a high probability trade or the heeding the lack of supporting data can avoid a costly mistake of taking a low probability trade. Now the question is where do the high probability trade opportunities exist this week due to significant commercial positions and supporting charts? (more…)

Day After Day Their Love Turns Grey

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Yes, there are going to be bounces. Yes, sentiment is in the doghouse. Yes, we are really, really oversold. But the notion that gold is somehow a steal right now is, I think, misplaced, and people keep trying to catch this falling knife, sometimes with both hands. I think we could see gold threatening $1000 before the year is over (although $1050 is my best guess for a bottom). My point is that this is a very dangerous creature. (more…)

The Night Is Dark And Full Of Terrors

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The Night Is Dark And Full Of Terrors

That cheery catch phrase from the Red Witch in Game of Thrones came to mind when reading Tim’s post about the hammering GDX took on Tuesday (“The Gold-Plated Falling Knife“). On Wednesday, GDX’s biggest holding, Barrick Gold (ABX) got hammered, falling more than 8%. In this post, we’ll take a look at how a couple of hedges on ABX from early May reacted to ABX’s drop as of Wednesday’s close. (more…)