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Two Years Of Gold Bugs Getting Burned
In an article last week (“Gold: A Sucker’s Paradise“), ETFguide editor Ron DeLegge noted the illustrious list of hedge fund managers who have gotten burned over the last two years being long gold and related securities such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD). One hedge fund manager who’s been on the right side of the gold trade has been our host Tim, who mentioned on Tuesday that GLD was his largest short position (“Repeating My Target for GLD“). (more…)
ES and SPX bounced very strongly off the daily middle bollinger bands yesterday morning and SPX closed back at the daily upper bollinger band. Kudos to my trading room bud Mike Vacchi of Princeton Trader for predicting the exact low on ES in the premarket to within a tick (at the ES daily middle bollinger band) and going long at 1754.5 (to my channel based entry at 1756.5). I hope some of you saw me tweet the bullish falling megaphone on ES before it broke up, and later tweet the likely close area before the last move up. We had a VERY nice day. (more…)
I’ve held for quite some time that gold is going to bottom somewhere north of $1,000 per ounce (I’m guessing around $1090 or thereabouts). It’s continuing to weaken, and GLD is my largest short position. Paradoxically, I think after such a nasty tumble, it will be the time to follow the kooks to the glory land of Real Money and load up.
I said on Friday morning that it was possible that the retracement low had been made on Thursday and while I though that was unlikely at the time I wrote it, the very strong reversal back up on Friday means that was most likely the case. You can see from the SPX 60min chart that the low on Thursday was a 23.6% fib retracement of the move up from 1646.47. If the double-top that broke down on Thursday has indeed failed, then I would expect new highs soon and for those new highs to be followed through. SPX 60min chart: (more…)
Since I wrote the commentary on my SPX charts below saying that a decent double-top setup was in place, but that I was nonetheless expecting new highs, the ECB has cut interest rates and ES has made new all-time highs. Dow already made new highs yesterday and I’m expecting SPX should make a new high in trading hours today. Any high made this week is likely to be within the acceptable double-top zone for SPX to peak near here. SPX 60min chart: (more…)
