Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
You are absolutely right: it’s not exactly an exciting pre-open. That’s OK! There’s still plenty we can do in this market. Over the past couple of weeks, the /ES has gently slipped its way higher, although it is definitely looking a skosh weary at these lifetime highs. There are only so many $1 trillion deals one can announce in a week, you know.
In my last post on Friday I was saying that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) had just broken over the previous week’s high at 102.7k and, as I noted on Monday 13th Jan, that was the right shoulder high on the H&S that had broken down. The break up on Friday invalidated that H&S and that break fixed a target at the retest of the all time high at 108.4k.
That target at the retest of the all-time high was reached quickly amid a wild weekend with the launch of Trump and Melania’s astonishingly popular meme coins, and that leaves a possible large double top setup on Bitcoin that I am not taking particularly seriously at this stage.
(more…)SPX retested the all time high today, and so the first, though not the only, upside target of the upside scenario that I laid out at the start of next week has been reached.
In my post on Monday 13th Jan I was stating that SPX was at the bottom of the big inflection point that has been forming, and that we were likely to see either a serious break down or a rejection back into the highs, showing the possible bull flag setups on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM.
In my post on Wednesday 15th Jan I was looking at the rally from Monday’s low, with the bullish reversal patterns forming on SPX, QQQ and DIA that would likely take them higher, and on SPX should open the test of the main resistance level at the daily middle band That would then need to be broken and converted to support to open the retest of the all time high.
(more…)Earnings announcements inject a unique kind of volatility into the market. As anticipation builds, implied volatility (IV) rises, pushing options prices higher. This happens whether investors are speculating on big moves or hedging against potential surprises. Regardless of the reason, the effect is the same: a temporary inflation of option premiums.
This volatility presents an opportunity for strategic traders. My approach during earnings season is straightforward: I identify high-probability setups where I can sell inflated options premiums for optimal returns. By focusing on statistical probabilities rather than predictions, I eliminate guesswork and rely on the law of large numbers to deliver consistent outcomes. Managing sequence risk—the risk of a series of trades failing—is equally crucial for long-term success.
(more…)One of my favorite comedians, David Cross (whom I saw in person a week ago) once explained why he didn’t make Trump jokes. He said it would be like trying to make fun of how the inside of a kaleidoscope looks righhhhhhht………now.
That’s how I’m going to feel about the financial markets in this new era. It’s going to be insane and difficult to summarize, because his whims and declarations are so fluid. Just over the holiday weekend, which is supposed to be pretty much dead in terms of financial movement, things seemed unhinged. The /ES, for instance, soared higher on word of no tariffs, and then plunged on word of 25% tariffs starting February 1st, and presently is generally higher just……..because.
