Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Decision Time on Crypto Rally

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In my post on Friday I was talking about the possible rally setup on Crypto and, while Crypto has gone down over the weekend, the rally setup has improved. It looks fragile though, and would rapidly fall in quality with a significant decline from here.

In the meantime, Trump was interviewed yesterday and was talking about further tariffs he was looking at against overseas trade partners. He was asked whether these policies might trigger a recession and said it was possible while seeming very relaxed about that prospect. This was not encouraging for equities and is fuelling further speculation that the current bull markets in Crypto and equities may now be over. I’m wondering more about that too but we’ll see how this develops.

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A Leap Of Faith

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Back in 2011/2 I was chatting to a guy on a blog and he said that the problem with gold was that the price of gold was only what someone was prepared to pay for it. I replied that he had come very close to a huge insight into nature of markets, but had failed to grasp it at the last moment. That is because the truth is that anything is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it, and what they would be paying for it with was also only worth what someone is prepared to pay for that. To that extent markets are based on faith, rather than value, as value itself is heavily based on faith.

What does this mean? Well it means sentiment and expectation are very important, and uncertainty depresses markets, and a big shock in confidence can cause big market declines or crashes.

How is this relevant? Well there is a nice looking rally setup here at a big inflection point, but for the rally to happen markets will need to make a leap of faith.

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How to Profit in a High IV Environment

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The Trader’s Guide to Volatility-Driven Edge

Markets, like human nature, are cyclical. Euphoria and despair oscillate, each convincing the masses that the current state is permanent. But for traders who understand the subtleties of implied volatility (IV), these emotional extremes are an opportunity, not a threat.

When IV spikes, fear is in the air. Traders panic, markets swing wildly, and options premiums surge to reflect the uncertainty ahead. This is where options sellers—those who thrive on mispriced risk—step in to harvest the volatility risk premium that the market hands them on a silver platter.

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Possible Rally Setups On Bitcoin & Solana

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In my post on 20th February I was looking at the big support levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025. So far the big levels on Solana and Ethereum have been tested and are holding, but the Bitcoin double top has not yet played out to the target at 69k to 70k and I’m still thinking that is likely.

In my post on 28th February I was putting the case that the bull market on Crypto isn’t over until the bull market on Bitcoin is over, and so far there is little indication of that, though that could change of course if there is a hard break below the 65k to 73.8k backtest zone.

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