Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

It’s Getting Tougher

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I have really been nailing US equity markets so far this year. I published a post on Wednesday 19th February, the day the SPX made the current all time high, looking at the high quality double top setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA, and the ok quality H&S on IWM, and all those topping patterns have now reached target with DIA, the last to reach target, hitting that on Friday.

I published a post on Monday 18th March looking at touches of the weekly 3sd lower band over the last few years and calling for a rally lasting at least a week or two based on the past history of similar setups on the weekly 3sd lower band, and we saw that too.

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WEEKLY Profit Targets

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It looks like the market may try to rally already this week. If that happens, it’s quite probable that the rally will be short-lived (at least until the current black cloud persists…). So, if the rally is a Bear Market Rally, these models below may help to determine “how far” these rallies can go. These are WEEKLY models, so as a minimum the time horizon is 1 week (or multiples of that), but things are happening VERY fast at the moment, so I would not be surprised to see a 1-week rally and it may even end on Wednesday.

All this said, here are the targets to monitor, to go SHORT again and profit from the next leg down:

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A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To Support

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In my post on Wednesday last week I was looking at the bear flags formed on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and those have all since broken down, but in a way that looks as though we might see a rally shortly.

I was outlining a scenario for that rally to a friend a couple of days ago, but was thinking the setup would probably fall apart as equity indices fell hard, but with SPX down almost 10% since then the setup is still intact, so I’m going to look at that today.

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The Masque of the Red Death

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The title of this post is a reference to a story by Edgar Allen Poe, which I would strongly recommend and, not wishing to give much away in the way of spoilers, is about a very exclusive party given by a Prince Prospero that ended extremely badly for all participants. It seems an appropriate title today,

As I suspected Trump did go ahead with the April 2nd ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs and seems determined to persist with these for several months at least. In practice this is the largest peacetime tax hike on US citizens in history and it seems unlikely that this experiment will go well. Before I look at the markets today I’d like to put these tariffs into some factual and historical context.

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