Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Silent Running

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Good morning, everyone. I’m composing this fifteen minutes into the trading day, and thus far my lovingly chosen short positions are having a good session. This is in spite of the fact that the past four weeks have been a merciless grind higher (and I suppose this would be an opportune time to apologize for being such a pill lately, but I’m a sensitive soul and given to bouts of intemperate moodiness, as long-time readers have surely divined by now).

If, God forbid, we close higher today, that’ll make a 90%-win rate for bulls over the past twenty trading days.

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Canaries and Cheerleaders

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I called the likely start of a strong rally on Crypto in my post on 11th April, and we have seen that rally. This has been, as I titled my post that day, a distorted mirror image of the rally on equities at the same time.

As of this morning I had not called a candidate rally high on either Crypto or equities for the move up from there as the setups didn’t look ready yet. That’s still the case on equities but there is now a high quality setup to reverse down here on Crypto for at least a strong retracement, and possibly a 2025 low retest.

I have a number of instruments I watch to warn me of possible direction changes coming on equities and Crypto is one of those, along with oil, copper, lumber and some others. I’m not assuming that equities will set up to reverse back down as well shortly but they may well. At the least there is a good case to see some consolidation on equities here. Crypto and equities do tend to be strongly correlated, but they aren’t in full sync all the time, and it may be that this move can happen without anything more than some sideways consolidation on equities.

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