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We’ve got a modestly red pre-open on our hands. Let’s compare present price levels with what was going on during the Sunday/Monday bull-fest.
Even with the /ES down over 30 points, all we’ve done is rewind to where we were around midnight on Sunday, halfway up its ascent. It helps, but it isn’t even close to a full reversal.
Today was annoying beyond all belief.
In spite of all indications for a down day, we were green all day long and, far worse, the /RTY pushed above the Fib, stopping me out of my options. Welp, that lasted a few minutes, and then back below the Fib we went. I’m glad I have plenty of hair, because otherwise I’d be bald by now from pulling it out.
One of these days I’m going to finally realize that Weekend IG information is not the least bit indicative of what the Sunday open is going to be like. All weekend long, IG was showing the Dow down a couple hundred points in the face of continued Israeli/Iran nastiness. Not to say that the endless hostility in the middle east had no effect, since it did briefly launch crude oil into the same kind of spike it had Thursday evening.
In my post on Sunday 1st June I was looking at the historically bearish leaning stats over four of the next six trading days and looking for a modest retracement that we then saw. I also mentioned that the last of those bearish leaning days was today, and that tomorrow through Monday 16th lean strongly bullish. Wednesday and Friday next week are the day before and after the holiday on Thursday 19th June, and lean neutral to slightly bullish historically, and we would often see modest volume and trading ranges, particularly as Friday is also quad witching June opex.
This is the start of a bullish opportunity window that may last for the next month or so particularly as the very important case on the legality of most of Trump’s tariffs being reviewed by the Supreme Court has been delayed until the end of July, and the 90 day window that delayed most of those tariffs in April is currently scheduled to expire on July 9th, with a general 50% tariff on all important from the EU also scheduled to start that day. I am wondering whether we might see a further 30 day delay of that July 9th window into August to land after that key Supreme Court decision.
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