Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Pre-Dawn Cleaner

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Hello, everyone, from the delicious dark and quiet suburban paradise of Palo Alto. True to form, the nation’s pundits and basement traders are loudly touting how the market is going STRAIGHT UP from these levels. Indeed, even on the likes of ZeroHedge are featuring prominent articles about……..

  • the market is really, really, really oversold;
  • the corporate swine will start buying literally billions of dollars of their own stock, every single weekday, with hundreds and hundreds of billions already approved by corporate boards;
  • “everyone is bearish” (AKA more than 1% of the public)
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About To Crash?

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A decade ago I was seemingly always on the lookout for a crash.  It’s not a profitable long term strategy.  In recent years I literally found myself resisting the urge to participate in crash “theology”.  In most cases I would find if I paused, those moments would likely mark important bottoms.

The curious thing that happens mentally when you make that transition over a period of years, is that as I resist the urge to participate in a move that is getting away to the downside I begin to recognize more clearly when I’m out of step with the market.  I experienced that today.  The market had many good reasons to continue bouncing higher today.  It didn’t.  Today’s break of key support I imagine caught a lot of people off guard.  This is the environment where crashes are possible.

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Traditional Options Trade for a Highly Volatile Market

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Volatility, as seen through the VIX, is back above 30. And when the VIX kicks above 30, option premium is inflated by historical standards, so it’s typically a great time to sell a little premium.

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