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SPX has been consolidating for a few days now, and generally speaking a consolidation like this leans bullish. I gave the ideal target for this rally at the weekly middle band and that remains the case in my view. That is now in the 4294 area.
SPX weekly chart:
Well, Wednesday wasn’t so bad. Hopefully the Tim-Knight-Sullen-o-Meter compelled a few aggressive souls to short the market early on Wednesday. The boys at Elliott Wave are still calling for a pop on the /ES to 4244 before this thing exhausts itself. I hope not; I really don’t think I could stomach a 130 point rally on it.
Anyway, for the immediate moment, we are now in our 8th day of captivity. We are all banging around a teensy weensy little range, but a point made here that I agree with is……….at the least bulls seem INCAPABLE of pushing this pig any higher. Here is the Dow Industrials ETF:
It seems like we’ve been talking about the IYR analog since John Kennedy was in office. This thing moves so damn slowly. The flip side is that if the pattern does complete, the move will likewise be powerful and persistent.
As a reminder, the “analog” actually doesn’t exist anymore, but only because the recent topping pattern is so much better than what took place pre-Covid. The trio of exponential moving averages is definitely behaving itself properly.
Well, I knew there’d be no red for the bears on Monday morning for one simple reason: crypto was having none of it. Ethereum in particular wasn’t about to budge below its support line. Not even a little:
Preface to all four parts: This weekend, I’ve taken some favorite exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and broken them into groups. I’ll share a few thoughts about each of these below, and as always, clicking on any chart will make it fill your screen, whatever size that may be.
We begin with the Dow Industrials, which has been following a descending channel and has been hammering out a fairly steady series of lower lows and lower highs. We’re at about the midline currently.
