When I did this ALL CAPS post in the middle of trading yesterday…………..
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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First Limits
I’ve got to say, its a really good feeling to end a day in which the /ES went up triple digits (!!!!!!!) and virtually every stock on the planet was higher, and I don’t even have a scratch or a nick to show for it. I’ve got my nice big fat pile of put-option profits right here, thank you very much. Indeed, 2022 has been glorious. I don’t think there’s been a single thing – – not one – – that I’ve predicted that hasn’t transpired. My screw-ups are strictly personal. Maybe I enter a position a little soon. And often I exit it way, way before its potential is fully realized. But those are emotional errors, not chart-based ones. The charts have been divine. Luckily, you don’t have to deal with my emotions in your own trading.
The question before us, of course, is how long these criminal bull sociopaths are going to push the market before reality (AKA the good sense that Slopers have) takes hold again. Will the /ES got to 4,400, as Atilla believes? I don’t think so. My view is one of three possibilities:
- The market is so diseased that today was the ONLY relief the bulls are going to get; or
- The /ES will keep pushing to just under 3,900; or
- The /ES will find some reason (peace in Ukraine?) to get to 4,100
Asthmatic Joggers
The counter-trend advance began haltingly on Sunday and Monday (at one point even going red) but once normal trading opened, it was off to the races.
Big or Small?
Welcome back from the, um, three-day weekend thing. I’m glad we can get back to normal life now and trade. And I don’t think I’ve ever cheered on green numbers so much before. As I’m typing this, equities are up pretty much 1.5% across the board, the crypto has had a very robust recovery ($BTC up almost 20% from where I bought it on Saturday morning). Here is the /ES with its ascent since trading re-opened on Sunday afternoon.
Blood In The Streets
I wanted to talk a bit this morning about big highs and lows on SPX. Obviously the economy may well be going into recession, interest rates will likely rise a lot further over coming years, and that has to happen really because examples in history where inflation has been brought under control without interest rates higher than that inflation are rare. The world is also particularly vulnerable to high interest rates because after so many years of very low interest rates, levels of both public and private debt are extremely high, and rising interest rates over time will likely force many people, companies and governments into defaulting on their debt. It is going to be rough.
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