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It is, naturally, a delight to see a screen full of red. Nothing warms my heart more than the arrogant, insipid, insolent, petulant bulls have dog feces kicked right in their faces. Here we see the ES works its way lower toward its intermediate-term 3500 goal.
Many of us ask, where are things going, are we at the bottom, are we reversing from here – – at least myself. I only really do bi directional strategies at this moment, meaning always working hedged for the next surprise, straddling CPI reports with leveraged ETFs and other tricks like that.
At the same time I hear many different points of view of where the bottom will be. From many I hear 350, from some 320. So I tried to find something I can reason with along these lines.
First of all, the bottom will be around that point when we hear that some people (which most of us know here as the Federal Reserve) start their printers up again and when we get a bit more an economy oriented government. The later may take two or more years, the first we don’t know.
(more…)SPX didn’t retest the retracement low on Tuesday and that blew the best chance to do that in the next few days. The stats for today through Tuesday lean modestly bullish, and fairly strongly bullish on Wednesday and Thursday. This doesn’t mean that SPX has to close higher on all or indeed any of those days, but it does mean that the bulls have the wind at their backs on those days rather than trying to advance against it. The next day with a significantly bearish lean is July opex on Friday 15th July.
In the short term SPX gapped over the daily middle band yesterday and that was the first serious short term resistance. If we are to see a retest of the retracement low in the next few days, which is still possible, then the clearest indication for that would be a daily rejection candle today that rolled back yesterday’s candle entirely and delivered a clear close back below the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 3630.
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