This market has that kind of a feel to it right now. What kind of feel is that Rev? This kind. Something just isn’t quite right. The scene below is from a resurrected favorite of mine: Wag the Dog. It delves into the man behind the curtain that tickles our synapses that something just doesn’t add up. I feel like our market at the moment isn’t being completely forth-coming, just like Mr. DeNiro and Hoffman. With that said, the cast to this movie was amazing, and also included Anne Heche. My condolences to her family.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
People of the Lie
Let’s start off with a simple fact: out of 100,000 people, you’ll find maybe one true bear among them. There’s hardly anyone that’s ever going to posit a bearish argument about the stock market, because they have no vested interest in doing so. Not the carnival barkers on CNBC. Not the equity-pushers from Goldman Sachs, And, God knows, never, ever from any Wall Street analyst. 365 days out of every year, their message is the same: “Buy, Buy, and Buy some more.”
Thus, it is no surprise that we’re seeing a particular “fact‘ being pushed onto the public, stating in no uncertain terms that there has never been an instance in the history of the universe when a market has recovered more than 50% of its price plunge and failed to soar forward into a new bull market. I am seeing this argument absolutely slathered all over Twitter………..
Air Getting Very Thin Here
I was talking on Friday about how every so often we see market moves that make no sense, but are technically sound, and go ahead and happen despite making no sense. I was calling these grey swans and as it happens there was a very good example of this that day.
On my daily 45dma chart at the intraday high SPX reached a level 9.1% above the 45dma, higher than both of the highs made after the 2020 low at 8.7% and 8.4%. That was something I didn’t expect to see, but here we are.
SPX daily 45dma chart:
Grey Swans
I wanted to take an opportunity to take stock of where this rally is in relation to the possible all time high retests that I was talking about in my post on 14th June just before the 2022 low was made. I have done three main posts looking at this and a possible news background that might help deliver those high retests from the decent looking bull flags that have formed in 2022 on all four of the main US indices that I watch from those all time highs
These are those three posts which are worth another look as there is more in them than I will be reviewing in this post.
Through A Glass Darkly – 14th Jun
Blood In The Streets – 17th Jun
The Evolving Markets – 8th Jul
(more…)Back Off!
This is a weekly chart of the /ES that the bulls think is such a great thing to be buying right now.
