The H&S patterns from the rally highs that I was looking at a week ago all made their target areas yesterday and SPX is now testing important support at 3900. This area was significant on the way up in early 2021, and was then key support in May, resistance in June, and was broken as resistance and backtested as support in July. Bulls need to hold this area if they want to go higher, and bears need to break it hard if they want to retest the 2022 low at 3636.87 and go lower.
(more…)Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Tim Trims
For newer readers, please note that whenever I close a position, it typically continues in a direction that would have been good for me about 100% of the time. So ignore everything I’m about to say.
- I believe we have plenty more downside this year;
- At the same time, the profits I’ve accrued from August 17 to present have been embarrassing;
- Just now, I trimmed from 37 positions down to a mere 30;
- Every single position of the 37 was profitable, some in triple-digits;
- I am at 17% cash right now;
- The reaction to tomorrow’s job report will be telling;
- I like cheese.
On The Road To 3910
In my post on Friday I was looking for a fail at the backtest of the 4200 SPX area, and a break down from the H&S patterns forming on the US equity indices and we saw that fail and all the H&S patterns broke down. None of those have yet made target.
SPX has broken back below the 45dma, now at 4030.05, so the reversion to the mean move has been completed and I won’t be posting this chart again for a while.
(more…)Big Opportunity In Oil
Today’s market is in a straight to the point kind of mood, so I’ll get right to it. $XLE is currently trading at 81.24. I expect it to trade down to 57.60, the October 2021 POC, by November of this year. That would be a 29% gain if you shorted $XLE from here. Let’s take a look as to why I expect that outcome.
Unnecessarily Terrifying
Jesus H. Christ on a pogo stick, what a horrific psychological travail they put us through to get here. Look at these index charts and be amazed. Today’s HIGH matches, almost to the hundredth of a point, the LOW from last Friday. In other words, the mayhem of the past four days merely served the purpose of CLOSING THE GAP, and now, bang-bang, we rock again.
