Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Quarter Pounder

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Friday was, neatly, exactly the last day of the quarter, and we kick off the final quarter of this so-far glorious year on Monday. Let’s look at a variety of important ETFs using quarter bars (each bar represents a full three months, instead of the typical single day0 to get a crude, long-term picture as to where the markets stand. As always, click on any chart for a bigger version, determined by the size of your screen.

We begin with commodities which, thank largely to oil and precious metals, has traversed to the bottom of its multi-year ascending channel. What we want to see next here is a break, which I am anticipating will happen thanks to continued weakness in commodities.

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Testing The 2022 Low

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Last week I was looking for a new low on SPX for 2022 and we’ve seen that week. I was also wondering about a possible rally after that and SPX has been setting up nicely for that rally, even with news this week that has mainly been grim. Nonetheless it is a decent looking setup for a rally here, so I’ll have a look both at that and the obvious next target below in the event that this rally setup fails.

On the rally prospects side the new low and retest of that low has created a very decent quality potential double bottom setup that using the lows at the time of writing would look for the 3850 area on a sustained break over 3736.74. The retest has also set up positive divergence on the daily RSI 14 and RSI 5. Given that there is similar divergence on NDX and still an open hourly RSI 14 buy signal fixed, that is a lot of potential and actual support for a rally here.

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How About This One?

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Here we are again. Is this the bullish base? Is this the bottom? Is the “epic squeeze” starting now? I dunno. As I’m typing this, an hour before the opening bell, the /ES is up over 50 points and is approaching a breakout point. It just goes to show how volatile things have been: the fact that an /ES being up over 50 is kind of a shoulder-shrug “meh” moment instead of a breakout.

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Approaching The Low Retest

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I was saying in my premarket video on Monday morning that ideally what we would see this week is a rally on Mon/Tues, and then another leg down on Wednesday through Monday next week in line with the very bearish historical stats for these four days. So far that has delivered well, with FOMC on Wednesday delivering the next leg down I was looking for. If you’d like to hear that premarket video every morning that is included in our Daily Update Service and you can get a 30 day free trial here.

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Head Space

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I live inside my own head most of the time. As such, I talk to myself almost constantly, asking questions of myself, and plotting out how to behave given certain circumstances.

The morning trek from bedroom to home office provides the opportunity for plenty of “Welp, boys, here we go” kinds of talks, as you might expect. There was an era when the persistent thought was, “Time to face the music” These days, I’m not quite so terrified of what I might see in the morning, and it recent days, this has been delightfully the case.

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