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The face-punching of the beleaguered bears continues, as the bulls have been more-or-less running the show since June 16th of last year. More recently, since January 6th, it’s basically been a straight line up, and the NASDAQ roared above its 50% retracement level this morning.
I’m finding it difficult to get back into doing more than one post a week. I shall try hard to get two out next week. (Editor’s note: cough cough cough!)
On SPX a week ago I was looking for a reversal under declining resistance from the all time high, and ideally a decline and high retest to set up a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal. I got the first of those but not the second.
The decline from the high was too large to set up the RSI 5 sell signal and as time goes by, unless we are going to see a break of declining resistance from the all time high, a high retest is looking less likely as soon it might need to break that resistance to retest the current high.
(more…)I’ll get this out of the way and say this year has not started out as I’d hoped. I was hoping for this month to begin the next large downturn, on the cusp of which seems to be never-ending. I have been bearish since early last year, which served me well earlier on in 2022 in the broad market and helped me to get into my TSLA short last year. But something is definitely off about this market now.
We can’t seem to get a consistent rally to break upwards nor a consistent downtrend again to get to capitulation and end this bear market. I have had this thesis early last year regarding the mentality of the overall market, how everyone was truly addicted to the free money we have had for the past 13 years. I have also made the comparison of Jerome Powell to an all-powerful drug dealer providing this drug so willingly for so long. But despite his unwavering commentary that they are going to continue raising rates, the market seems to refuse to believe it. In fact, the market seems to be totally obsessive about it.
(more…)Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the shortened trading week. Earnings are now starting in earnest, with next week being the tsunami. As for the /ES, we’re down a bit, but frankly the thing has just been meandering ever since last Thursday when the CPI came out. That caused a tremendous jolt, but the tremors have been getting lighter and lighter.
