Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Mayday

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SPX broke up through the possible H&S setup on Friday and delivered a full retest of the April high, closing the month six handles under key resistance at the monthly middle band and testing the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low. So what now?

Well, this is the main resistance that SPX has been failing at, and we now have the high quality topping pattern that I’ve been looking for, on decent quality hourly negative divergence, with matching topping patterns and divergence on other indices. This is the inflection point, right here, and the odds strongly favor SPX failing here into at least a strong retracement, and very possibly a leg down into a new bear market low.

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Possible High Being Made

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SPX went down a little further than was ideal, and then rallied very hard yesterday, so the topping pattern scenario is still on track.

The break below the daily middle band confirmed on Wednesday and SPX broke back hard over the middle band again yesterday. A close over 4115 again today will confirm the break back above. There is the option of a hard rejection back below that today, which would be unusual on a Friday, but definitely possible as today is the last day of April, and the stats for that lean 67% bearish.

SPX daily BBs chart:

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The Key Line for Amazon

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Perhaps the most important earnings report of this entire week is from Amazon (AMZN, duh) which Ms. Sanchez has kindly agreed to illustrate in the form of a daily price chart. Please take careful note of the price level 114.49, which is a price gap that has served as a ceiling for many, many months. If we can stay below this level, that would be, shall we say, a good thing. I have NO position in this beast, but I will be watching after-hours action with great eagerness.

Nine Lives

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The market has felt really good lately, so let’s take an opportunity to survey nine important index charts, about each of which I’ll say a few words. First there is the All World Index, which is kind of ground zero for my entire “face-off” theory. That is to say, we’ve got the opposing forces of a bearish top (pink) and bullish base (green) which have met on the line of scrimmage and have to resolve in one direction or another.

As you might guess, my desire is for the price to not “escape’ above the bullish base, and instead to slip below, on to the right, of the pattern, thus spoiling it. There’s no definitive answer yet, but recent trading sessions have definitely nudged things in my desired direction.

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