Ever the trendsetter, I stopped going into the office in 2007. Thirteen years later, the rest of the world decided to do the same, with Covid as the prompting force. Most of them haven’t bothered going back.
The Empty Office
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Hope By Way of Indexes
Thursday and, surprisingly, Friday were “healing” days for my trading psyche. Perhaps H2 2023 will be better than H1 (God knows it couldn’t be worse). I wanted to say a few words about the six indexes below.
The All World Index is still in the grips of its “face-off” between the pink and green patterns. It’s clear that the explosive move out of the green bullish base has sputtered. That’s all well and good, but what really needs to happen for the bears is for price action to erode into the price range defined by that green tint. This would negate the bullish base.
The Earliest H2 Rumblings
Welcome to the second half of 2023. If my self-confidence and excitement were measured by way of the VIX, it would probably be at 3.12 right now. Take that for what you will. Pre-market, on this holiday-shortened trading day, the /ES has been slumbering around all night and day in a tiny ten point range.
The Invisible Man
Whenever I’m feeling particularly nostalgic or, as recently, severely melancholic, I get out my old high school yearbook from when I was a senior. In the words of Paul Simon:
Sonny sits by his window and thinks to himself How it's strange that some rooms are like cages Sonny's yearbook from high school Is down from the shelf And he idly thumbs through the pages Some have died Some have fled from themselves Or struggled from here to get there Sonny wanders beyond his interior walls Runs his hand through his thinning brown hair
My hair isn’t thinning, but the rest of the imagery is spot-on.
(more…)Binary Decision Point
I was looking earlier this week on the very high quality falling wedge that had formed on SPX from the last high and considering the odds that it was a bull flag setting up a retest of the high.
Since then the wedge has broken up, retraced about 50% of the decline, and an IHS has formed with a target back at a retest of the last high.
At this stage there are only two main options. Firstly that the IHS breaks up, converts the neckline to support, and goes on to retest the last high, and secondly that SPX drops back through 4360, and likely then retests the last low at 4328.09, and then very possibly down further. It is very likely that we will see one of those two options happen next.
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