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The market feels really good right now. What I mean by that is all my positions are going smoothly, and it doesn’t take any kind of cataclysm to have a terrific day. Yesterday (Tuesday) the market was fairly placid, but I had the best day in a very long time, simply because the patterns, the trendlines, and the price/support levels are all working so well.
If I’m not mistaken, this is the portion of the year where we have the longest stretch of time between stupid holidays. We’ve got about 80 full days with no flippin’ Labor Day, no freakin’ Memorial Day, and no bloody High Holy Cabbage Feast Day. Incidentally, I see that the city of Palo Alto, which already overpays its employees by hundreds of percent for doing almost no work, is going to give them Juneteenth AND Cesar Chavez Day off from now on. Besides that, their venal union leaders won them ANOTHER paid holiday of their choice so that they may engage in, and I’m not making this up, “a day of reflection.“
Yeah, let me count on one finger just how many city employees are going to be hanging out at home doing THAT.
Jesus. Anyway………….
(more…)Earlier this year, I was a big fan of energy shorts. Simply stated, the trades rarely worked, and a couple of months ago, I pretty much threw my arms up at the whole sector. I’ve got to say, looking at the continuous contract of crude oil, the massive top might never complete. It got close, but no cigar.
These are my top reasons for being bearish here. This is not a timing call although in my opinion, the market has been the walking dead since the AI-spike. Most of these are slow moving data points though and say nothing about short-term action or sentiment.
Give Me the Best Risk-Adjusted Return
The DJIA divided by the CPI. There are two potential bear markets: 1930s (2000 and 2008) or 1970s. Big difference in the performance of commodities and bonds. Stocks will also be difficult for trading in an inflation scenario. It could be 2022 and 2023 repeated for years while inflation incinerates purchasing power.
