I always try and keep an open mind, as too strong a directional view on any trading instrument can result in tunnel vision, where the analyst sees mainly or only the evidence that supports that view. That is an obstacle to good analysis, and for an analyst who trades, can get very expensive. In trading terms it doesn’t matter whether any market goes up or down, as long as the trader is on the right side of the market. Nothing else matters. I can therefore love a market or trading scenario, but no good analyst should ever marry one.

I was talking last week about my preferred scenario on SPX with the H&S looking for the 4050 area, delivering a 50% retracement of the move up from the 2022 low, and potentially setting up another larger move up into a retest of the all time highs on SPX (and NDX). That is not the only scenario in play here however, and the odds of my main alternate scenario happening instead rose significantly yesterday at the swing low that I think was likely made at the low yesterday afternoon, barring retests and marginal lower lows as part of the bottoming process.