Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bear Flag Trio

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On Thursday last week I wrote a post looking at the possible four larger bear flags that could form on SPX, NDX, Dow & IWM after the sharp decline on Wednesday afternoon. Of those four, there are three decent looking larger bear flags that have since formed, and this morning we are watching the inflection point where these flags may break down into retests of the retracement lows made on Monday last week.

On SPX the obvious larger flag resistance trendline I drew on Thursday was hit perfectly on Friday and overthrown slightly today.

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Marvelously Mellow Morning

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It’s pleasant to open up to a regret-free morning. What I mean by that is that, all too frequently lately, the first impression I get from the morning quotes is that I’m not nearly short enough or otherwise positioned badly. Today, however, the market is modestly down, which means my positions are good yet I have the opportunity to get more aggressively where appropriate. Below as the /ES and /RTY overnight. As you can see, the /ES made some attempts to reach escape velocity (above the green line) but persistently failed, and the /RTY merely managed to close up its Sunday price gap.

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Winding Roads

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My post yesterday was close to the rally high so far and all the bear flags I showed broke down shortly afterwards and continued down the rest of the day.

Now on a break down from a bear flag the target is the retest of the prior low, but there are other options, notably when the flag that has broke down is just the first leg of a larger bear flag that is still forming, so I’ll talk about that today.

On SPX there was a strong break of the bear flag yesterday, 5min RSI 14 buy signals fixed near the lows on all of SPX, NDX, IWM and Dow, and played out this morning. A weak 5min RSI 14 sell signal has now fixed on SPX and it may be that the indices will turn back down here into the retest of Monday’s lows.

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