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As long-time readers know, I’m no fan of three-day weekends (Juneteenth notwithstanding), and this was no exception. It was particularly irksome since the thinly traded markets decided to tease any surviving bears with a modest sell-off all through Sunday evening, only to have us wake up Monday and watch it march to new recent highs.
Surely it would make a fantastic business school case study to understand the strategic differences that drove O’Reilly Auto Parts and Advanced Auto Parts in such profoundly different directions.
I posted the SPXADP chart a few days ago, and since then it has punched above the 30 level on the chart. What does that mean? Well about 50% of the time that means that a short term high is very close, sometimes for a serious high, but more often just a retracement that would look for close to or at the -25 level on the chart. The rest of the time would be continuation, sometimes into a short term high not long after, but often just a move higher.
A double punch above the 30 level, as we may see that here, would strongly favor retracement or at least a period of consolidation in the weeks afterwards.
(more…)I’m sure the likes of Tom Lee were giggling and tittering and being scrumptiously silly on Friday when the Powell Pivot came out. Maybe Mr. (?) Lee isn’t feeling so scrumptious anymore. I’ve said it all along that the Powell Pivot is the start of a major BEAR market, not BULL market, and some folks are starting to wake up to this fact. The /NQ is breaking down below a tremendous zone of price congestion.
All the new weekly pivots are on the daily charts posted below.
The last few days I have been watching the resistance at the daily middle band on all three of BTCUSD (Bitcoin), ETHUSD (Ethereum) and SOLUSD (Solana). An H&S pattern had formed and broken down on Solana, and another was still forming on Ethereum. If resistance at those daily middle band held then the setup was likely to break down further, into targets of 119 on Solana and 2,250 on Ethereum. On a sustained break up over those daily middle bands, and the failure of the H&S pattern on Solana on a break back up over the H&S right shoulder high at 152.17.
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