Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fueling the Indexes

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Now that we’re in the thick of the earnings season, and with the market more-or-less making lifetime highs every day, I thought it would be helpful to reflect on some of the big indexes.

On the one hand, there’s a lot of new buying power (notably, massive corporate buybacks) that are going to come back on the scene in a few weeks, (as well as improved seasonality), so maybe we’ll be at 6,000 on the S&P 500 in no time, yet on the other hand, some of these indexes look like they’re sputtering at these lofty levels.

The NASDAQ Composite is close to making lifetime highs, but it spent the week stuck at that dashed line, which represents the now-sealed price gap.

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Proof Of Life

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I was looking at this rising wedge on SPX posted on twitter earlier this week by someone with the comment that the break above this week is a bearish overthrow that would likely precede a break down from the wedge and then a likely 38.2% to 61.8% retracement of the wedge. Obviously I’ve been posting that wedge and looking at it every day in my premarket videos for weeks, and it is a very decent quality pattern, but I’m doubtful.

If we were going to see that retracement happen, then the obvious time to do that would have been over the last four weeks or so, in the obvious bearish window into late October. That didn’t happen, so unless we see some evidence that the bears are still in the game, I’m going to remain doubtful.

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Hard Break Up On Crypto

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Yesterday afternoon I sent a quick update post to all the subscribers at my Crypto SubStack to warn them that there was now a high quality bull flag setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that on a break up would look for a target at a retest of the September high at 66.5k. I also noted that the hourly RSI 14 sell signal that had formed and fixed as Bitcoin was hitting flag resistance had reached the possible near miss target. I was thinking of circulating this more widely but SubStack was having issues yesterday afternoon, so I thought I’d just cover this in a post today.

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