I think a bounce started on Friday. /ES saw three weeks of sideways consolidation between 3800-3900, after breaking back under 3900 in mid-December. I had hoped for a short term thrust lower last week to put in a noticeable short term bottom. That didn’t happen. What we got instead was the 3800 level holding as support. There is very little support at the 3800 level. I see it as a short term phenomenon.
First, let’s take a look at the daily chart of SPY below. Highlighted in red are the three clusters of monthly POCs that I consider to be key levels of support/resistance. Also noted are monthly value high/low for SPY. Value high is at 397.28, and value low is at 376.21. The good news for bears is that under the lows of the past few weeks, there is really no meaningful support for quite some time. For the moment though, I think the bounce needs to be respected until the recent lows give way.
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