I would love to be able to say to you that God came to me in a dream last night and provided me clairvoyance as to the future of the equities market. Sadly, I did have dreams all last night, but they were – and I am not making this up – about urea. I learned recently that there is a futures market in the stuff, and I guess my subconscious found this deeply troubling, so I spent an entire night dreaming about talking with loved ones about urea. . (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Unicorn Deathmatch
I posted a chart of the daily SPX vs NYMO since 2006 on twitter last night and I’ll lead with that this morning. The charts show 22 hits or very near misses of -100 on NYMO and below since the start of 2006, of which 10 showed marked positive divergence at the low. All of these lows with markedly positive NYMO divergence delivered strong bounces, and the last three of those divergences were seen at the main lows on 2010, 2011 and 2012. This is therefore a strong signal that this retracement low is in, and significant further downside on SPX without a rally that at least reached 0 on the NYMO indicator beforehand would be a rarity that has not been seen since the start of 2006 at the least. SPX vs NYMO daily chart: (more…)
Brave New World Series: 1 – Secular Cycles
Brave New World Series
1. Secular Cycles on Equities
For those who aren’t familiar with them there are two types of overall market trend. The first is the primary or cyclical market, and these are bull or bear markets lasting between a few months to (more usually for primary bull markets) two to five years with a move in excess of 20%, and on this basis since 2009 we have seen a primary bull market from March 2009 to May 2011, a primary bear market from May to October 2011, and another primary bull market from October 2011. (more…)
Snakes and Ladders
ES tried and failed to break back and hold above the 50 hour MA near the open yesterday and it was all downhill from there. The IHS patterns have obviously failed to complete and SPX is now close to another test of broadening wedge support. I think that wedge is going to break and this therefore looks like a formality, but it’s an important formality and more bullish scenarios are still on the table until we see the wedge broken. Here’s the chart I posted on twitter yesterday night with the updated wedge. SPX 60min chart: (more…)
Distorted Reflections – Bonds
I want to have a good look at bonds today but first I’ll look at the IHS patterns that we’ve been watching develop since I posted the first chart looking at this possibility on SPX last Friday. On ES the IHS is forming nicely, with the next obvious step being to recover over the 50 hour MA, which was intraday resistance yesterday. The IHS shoulders look balanced so for good symmetry this IHS should ideally break up today, and no later than tomorrow. ES 60min chart: (more…)
