We live in a very complex world, and even I don’t think history repeats itself perfectly. I was curious, though, to see how the market had behaved with respect to time during the last prior run-up. Below I’ve (crudely) drawn a box representing the length of time of the 2002-2007 bull market; it spanned almost precisely five years. I’ve also (again, crudely) drawn a box for the present run-up (which in my opinion bottomed in November 2008, broadly speaking, in spite of the nominal lower on the S&P 500). So we’re kind of “due” around now. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The Simple Truth
In a market like this, I’m a fool. In years to come, I will be considered a prophet (I hope so, at least!). I prefer the prophet, I’ve got to tell you. It was a cool little business, and it’s a cool little role – – ex post facto, of course. Being bearish in a world where a firm like Twitter can garner a $25 billion valuation is no walk in the park. Try it sometime. (And as for the likes of Nouriel Roubini, they’re going to claim to have been bearish, but that’s a crock of crap; they turned coats long ago). (more…)
The Bottom Line
After the 1560 low in June I was definitely favoring the scenario that SPX was starting a big new bull leg up, and that was on the basis mainly of the primary rising wedge that broke up earlier this year with a target in the 1965 area. (more…)
The Next 100 Weeks for Equities
Running correlation tests with the rally from Mar 2009 – 2013 to help us to determine how much juice is left in the rally. (more…)
