I took some time yesterday night to consider the overall bull market pattern setup here from the 2011 low. There is something that has been concerning me seriously on my weekly charts, and that is that I still have no pattern from the 1343 low, and the last low of course was very clearly on a trendline from the 1560 low. Why is that important? Well I’m going to do a post explaining my thinking here in detail at the weekend but suffice it to say for now that my wedge target at 1965 is a wedge target regardless of degree, but the reason I have been expecting the target to be reached is because my assumption has been that the rising wedge from the 2011 low from which that target is taken is a primary bull market pattern. If that was the case, then the following primary bull market pattern should start from 1343, and I can only see a secondary (one degree below) pattern starting there. If that pattern is a secondary pattern, then most likely the rising wedge from the 2011 low was also a secondary pattern. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Five Charts=Five Thousand Words
It’s said a picture is worth 1,000 words. In this case, I think five charts are worth five thousand words, because this market is pound-the-desk shortable. I’ve noticed a subtle shift in the conversation on Slope recently in which even formerly bearish participants are saying, in one form or another, “well, the market is kind of fairly valued, if you look at it this way.” The investing public has, I believe, collectively embraced the Stockholm Syndrome, and as such, you are starting to have positive feelings toward your captors. (more…)
Hammer Time
After the hard break down through the weekly middle bollinger band on SPX on Monday, a series of lower downside targets opened up and I spent some time assessing the relative merits of those. However on a weekly candlestick, as with all candlesticks, the most important data points are the open and the close, and last week’s candle closed on Friday in the green, and back above the weekly middle band, delivering a very nice looking bullish white hammer candle. All of the action under the weekly middle band was therefore intraweek and on a weekly closing basis the middle band held as support. That bullish candle is a bottoming/reversing candlestick, albeit one that needs confirmation the following week. SPX weekly chart: (more…)
A Matter of Perspective
Well, so far today the market is rolling forward As God Intended, and I sold my SPY, thanked it very much for its profit, and am pure bear again. One of my positions is Aeropostale, symbol ARO. Looking at the 10 year daily chart, which is my usual perspective, I was wondering if it was “bottoming out”………. (more…)
Brave New World Series: 5 – A Pattern Projection into 2016-8
This is the fifth post in my Brave New World Series (BNW Series) since SPX broke over major long term resistance under 1600 in April 2013. The thrust of this series is to argue first that the break confirmed the end of the secular bear market that began in 2000, and to look at where equities, particularly SPX, are likely to go from that break. (more…)
